Ian Begley, SNY.tv | Twitter |
If you're looking ahead to free agency for the Knicks, the first question to ask is: Will New York trade for Chris Paul?
As noted last month, some people with the Knicks believe Paul would provide strong leadership for their young players and help jump-start the winning culture that New York wants to establish under president Leon Rose.
It's unclear, at this point, if the Knicks will aggressively pursue a Paul trade, or if Oklahoma City is willing to move him.
Paul, who turns 35 next month, averaged 17.7 points, 6.8 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game last season. He helped the Thunder far exceed preseason expectations (OKC was in fifth place in the Western Conference when the season was suspended). Paul is also under contract for the next two seasons for a total of $85 million (he has a player option in '21-'22).
So, depending on the timing of the deal, a trade for Paul would eat up nearly all of the Knicks' cap space this summer. He'd also take up nearly 35 percent of the projected cap for 2021-22. The cap, of course, may decrease starting this summer due to the China imbroglio and the impact of coronavirus. If the cap decreases, Paul's contract would take up an even larger portion of the Knicks' available money.
Based on current cap projections, there are scenarios where the Knicks could trade for Paul and have some remaining money to spend on free agents this summer.
With the help of cap expert Albert Nahmad, we explore a few CP3-to-NYK trade scenarios below, along with a look at the cap ramifications of each move.
SCENARIO 1: Knicks trade Reggie Bullock and Frank Ntilikina for Paul
CAP RAMIFICATIONS: In this scenario, we're assuming the cap is $115 million (that's the current projection, but, as noted above, it's subject to change). We're also assuming the Knicks absorb Paul into cap space.
To do that, they'd decline Bobby Portis' team option ($15.8M) and renounce Moe Harkless' Bird rights ($16.5M cap hold). They'd also waive Taj Gibson ($9.5M, with 1M guaranteed), Elfrid Payton ($8M, with $1M guaranteed) and Wayne Ellington ($8M, with $1M guaranteed). In this scenario, they'd also keep Reggie Bullock beyond June 28, the date by which his 2020-21 salary of $4.2 million becomes fully guaranteed.
This trade would leave the Knicks with Dennis Smith Jr., Julius Randle, R.J. Barrett, Kevin Knox, Allonzo Trier, Mitchell Robinson, Damyean Dotson, Paul and Iggy Brazdeikis on the roster. If you include salaries for their two first-round picks (roughly $8 million in combined salary for 2020-21), they would have roughly $107 million in committed salary and $8 million in cap space. They would also have the room mid-level exception (projected at $5 million), and veteran's minimum exceptions (which are 1-2 year deals at the minimum salary).
But this trade would see the Knicks give up their Bird rights to Harkless, a $4 million trade exception, the non-tax payer mid-level exception (projected at $9.8 million) and bi-annual exception ($3.8 million), or the tax-payer mid-level exception ($6 million).
New York could instead include Ellington, Gibson and Payton in a Paul trade and keep the above exceptions. But Oklahoma City would have to guarantee all three players' 2020-21 salaries in the trade.
Either scenario depends, of course, on how willing -- if at all -- Oklahoma City is trying to get Paul off its books. If the Thunder are desperate to get Paul out to clear money for the summer of 2021 or 2022, then maybe they'd be willing to accept less than the package described above.
One executive (not with the Thunder or Knicks) speculated that the Thunder would be open to the Ntilikina/Bullock package. Another exec pointed out that the trade market for Paul would be limited. So, if OKC wanted to get out of Paul's contract, the Knicks wouldn't be competing with many other teams.
Video: What would a Knicks trade for Chris Paul look like?
SCENARIO II: Knicks trade Reggie Bullock and Kevin Knox for Paul
CAP RAMIFICATIONS: In this scenario, we're assuming again that the cap is $115 million, and the Knicks absorb Paul into cap space. To do that, they'd have to renounce/waive the players above and decline Portis' team option. They'd also again have to keep Bullock beyond his June 28 guarantee date.
This trade would leave the Knicks with Smith Jr., Randle, Barrett, Ntilikina, Trier, Robinson, Dotson, Paul and Brazdeikis on the roster. If you include salaries for their two first-round picks (roughly $8 million in combined salary for 2020-21), they would have roughly $108.5 million in committed salary and $6.5 million in cap space. They would also have the room mid-level exception (projected at $5 million) and veteran's minimum exceptions (which are 1-2 year deals at the minimum salary).
Same as the above scenario, this trade would see the Knicks give up their Bird rights to Harkless, a $4 million trade exception, the non-tax payer mid-level exception (projected at $9.8 million) and bi-annual exception ($3.8 million), or the tax-payer mid-level exception ($6 million).
New York could instead include Ellington, Gibson and Payton in a Paul trade and keep the above exceptions. But Oklahoma City would have to guarantee all three players' 2020-21 salaries in the trade.
Again, it all depends on how willing Oklahoma City is to trade Paul to create cap flexibility in future summers.
One other note on a Paul deal: If Dotson is included in a Paul deal -- and the deal is constructed to trade Paul into cap space -- Dotson would need to agree to be signed-and-traded. In this scenario, OKC would need to agree to be hard-capped at the $145M apron, putting a limit on how much money the club could spend.