The warning signs seemed there for Yankees’ Gerrit Cole nightmare -- now what?

Last spring, when Gerrit Cole had his elbow checked, levels of concern inside the Yankees organization were moderate, even cautiously optimistic. Cole was just being thorough, team officials thought, making sure that he did not need surgery.

As it turned out, he did not. But the year was still weird.

This time around, the mood is far more bleak, and tilting toward hopelessness. At the original time of this publishing on Monday morning, the Yankees did not know for certain that their ace will need Tommy John surgery -- but after meeting with Dr. Neal ElAttrache later in the day, the worst has been confirmed.

The Yankees have been bracing for this with a quiet resignation that comes after a year of strong hints at this outcome.

Really, the bread crumbs have been there ever since Cole returned to the big leagues in late June. Covering the Yankees, I’d wondered all summer and fall if the team and Cole were bracing for this outcome.

Consider:

-- Cole threw his slider just 16 percent of the time last season, the lowest total since his rookie year. Always thoughtful and evolving, he had strategic reasons for this alteration of repertoire, but one couldn’t help but wonder if he was also holding back on snapping off that biting slider for fear of blowing out his elbow.

-- Manager Aaron Boone encountered fan and media criticism for pulling Cole at 88 pitches in the seventh inning of Game 1 of the World Series. But team sources said that Boone was actually pushing Cole that night, not acting conservatively. "Cole was gassed after the sixth," a source said. The natural question, unanswerable at the time: why?

-- In early November, Cole exercised an opt-out clause in his contract. This had been long expected, as was the Yankees response of voiding the opt out by adding a tenth year to Cole’s previously nine-year deal. Only they didn’t. The team told Cole that it was only comfortable keeping him under the current terms. Again: why?

-- A month later, the Yankees signed free agent ace Max Fried to an eight-year, $218 million contract.

Taken together, these factors smelled like anxiety over the durability of Cole’s elbow.

They also constitute a major bummer, not only for the Yankees but for the game itself. Cole is one of its more eloquent masters, a big personality deeply engaged in his craft and willing to spread its gospel. With baseball losing him for a year, the entire sport will be poorer.

The Yanks, of course, are worse off than anyone in this mess. Having already lost reigning American League Rookie of the Year Luis Gil to a high-grade late strain (and the fastest bat in baseball, Giancarlo Stanton, to what Stanton himself called "severe" elbow injuries), the team is decimated before playing a single regular season game.

So what now? Will the Yankees try to swing an impact trade?

Well … the team is already at or near its payroll limit. In a sense, they’ve already acquired the Cole contingency plan/replacement, and his name is Max Fried.

The Yanks do have insurance on Cole’s contract, and that will help -- but insurance does not reduce the luxury tax payroll, or the heavy penalties that come with every dollar spent over the highest threshold.

The Yankees are already seeking a right-handed hitter to replace Stanton. They will surely look for more pitching depth now, and perhaps check in on higher-end trade targets.

But when you lose Gil for months, and Cole for the year, there is little a team can do but acknowledge the grimness of the situation and be glad that they at least signed Fried.