You might be among those who couldn't believe GM Dave Gettleman decided to go with Georgia OT Andrew Thomas with the fourth pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Mock drafts had Iowa's Tristan Wirfs, Alabama's Jedrick Wills and even Louisville's Mekhi Becton taken before him. And then there's the Isaiah Simmons situation.
Not many thought Thomas would be off the board first, and that includes ESPN's NFL Draft model that aggregates all mock drafts, analysis and trade situations to see where players should be going.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Gettleman and the Giants took a big reach at No. 4 when they took Thomas based off this model that had a zero percent chance of him going that early.
Why did the model say this? Well, it was believed, based off the information given, that the Giants could've traded down and taken Thomas later in the draft. And that's what Gettleman was attempting to do, as it was made known before the draft that his preference was to trade down and take his tackle.
However, Gettleman told reporters during a conference call that he just didn't find the right deal, and balked on any trade possibility. In turn, he took his man.
Of course, no one can really know for sure if this was a big reach like the model says it is. Thomas projected well after the very thorough analysis from Gettleman and new head coach Joe Judge. His track record against top talent in the SEC to go along with his intangibles that attributed to his success in the run and pass games made him a top draft prospect in the first place.
The Giants weren't the only ones that reached in the first round, according to the model. The Raiders did so with Ohio State CB Damon Arnette at pick No. 19, and the Eagles did when they passed up on Justin Jefferson at No. 21 to take TCU's Jalen Reagor instead. The Seahawks with ILB Jordyn Brooks and Titans with OT Isaiah Wilson were also reaches.
As for those that cashed in, the Cowboys at No. 17 with WR CeeDee Lamb falling into their laps as well as the Jets with OT Mekhi Becton at No. 11 make the cut there. The biggest steal, though, might be Wirfs going to the Buccaneers at No. 13, with the model saying there was a 2.8 percent chance he would even be available there.
Either way you want to look at it, the Giants think they've found their left tackle of the future in Thomas. And no matter what the model says, they will believe that until games start.