How the Mets and Pete Alonso might pivot back to one another

Nearly two weeks ago, the Mets pivoted toward a future that they believed would likely not include Pete Alonso.

As of Wednesday, that essential dynamic had not yet changed, despite brief recent conversations between the camps.

But could it? And if so, how?

In order to sign Alonso now, the Mets would have to make the difficult decision to increase payroll — and competitive balance tax penalties — far beyond what they had planned.

No one has described the state of play more accurately and concisely than owner Steve Cohen at the team’s Amazin’ Day at Citi Field on Saturday.

"I will never say no," Cohen said about Alonso returning. "There’s always the possibility. But the reality is we’re moving forward, and we continue to bring in players. As we continue to bring in players, the reality is it becomes harder to fit Pete into what is a very expensive group of players that we already have. And that’s where we are."

Roughly two weeks ago, Alonso turned down a deal that would have paid him more than $70 million, including deferred money. The Mets interpreted that as a sign that Alonso would sign elsewhere.

The team pivoted almost immediately, agreeing to terms with outfielder/DH Jesse Winker and reliever A.J. Minter. Factoring in budgeting for the injured list, that took the team’s projected payroll into the low $300 million range, league sources say.

Add to that the standard in-season and trade deadline budgeting of $10-15 million, and the Mets already have to allow for approximately $310-320 million — and that is without Alonso and the utility infielder they are seeking.

It is not Cohen’s style to present president of baseball operations David Stearns with a firm payroll budget, but the two are in agreement that it is unwise to venture too far past the top luxury tax threshold, which is set this year at $301 million. Every dollar spent over that line is taxed at 110 percent. The team does not want to be wildly over that mark on an annual basis.

The Mets on Wednesday agreed to terms with reliever Ryne Stanek on a one-year deal worth between $4-5 million, pending a physical. They had been talking to more expensive relievers like Kenley Jansen, too; the deal with Stanek could keep a bit of wiggle room to spend on Alonso. The Stanek signing more likely than not signals that the Mets are now happy with their bullpen.

The only reason we’re having this conversation two weeks after the pivot is that Alonso has not yet found a home with another team. Talks were advancing last week between Alonso’s camp and Toronto, league sources said. But a potential stumbling block there could have been deferred money, based on Toronto’s heavily deferred agreement with outfielder Anthony Santander.

We’ve written this before, but the Mets’ stance on Alonso as a player and person has remained consistent: They like him, and have wanted him back all along.

Now that they have pivoted, bringing Alonso back at a similar three-year deal with opt outs to the one he rejected would push them into uncomfortable payroll territory, perhaps the $330-$340 million range.

That is a big decision, and it won’t happen today, or likely this week.