Mets at Twins: 5 things to watch and series predictions | April 14-16

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Twins play a three-game series in Minnesota beginning on Monday at 7:40 p.m. on SNY.

Preview

Is a Juan Soto breakout coming?

For the first time this season, Soto is struggling.

He has just one hit in his last 13 at-bats, and has been making mostly weak contact lately -- including lots of grounders to the right side of the infield.

Also absent at the moment is Soto's power. He has hit just one home run this season (in the second game of the year against the Astros), and his last extra-base hit came on April 7 against the Marlins at Citi Field.

Soto, as is always the case, is seeing the ball well. And he's continuing to get on base regularly, as evidenced by his .409 OBP.

But Soto doesn't look like himself at the plate -- something you figure will change any day now.

Clay Holmes looks to keep building as a starter

Holmes' final line during his last start did not match how he looked and how well he executed his pitches.

In 5.1 innings against the Marlins, Holmes struck out a season-high 10 batters, but was dinged with four earned runs -- due in part to multiple wind-blown hits. The bullpen also allowed two inherited runners to score.

While Holmes will enter Monday's start against the Twins with an ERA of 4.30, his FIP (2.39) is almost two full runs lower. That suggests he's been pretty unlucky during his first three starts and is due for a correction.

Another thing to keep an eye on is how deep Holmes goes.

After failing to escape the fifth inning in his first two starts, he turned in a 5.1 inning performance in his third.

How will Edwin Diaz look?

Diaz's season began with four dominant appearances where he held the opposition scoreless, allowed three hits, walked none, and struck out six.

Things couldn't have swung more wildly the other way in Diaz's last two appearances, as he has been unable to harness his stuff.

In those appearances (the first of which was a non-save situation during a game the Mets were losing), Diaz allowed five runs on three hits while walking four and striking out one.

An obvious negative is that Diaz's command has been off. An obvious positive is that his fastball velocity was up to 99 mph against the A's on Friday.

Even while being largely dominant over the last several seasons, Diaz always seems to have one stretch per year where he kind of loses it. He's in the midst of one of those stretches now. For the Mets' sake, it hopefully won't last much longer.

The Twins are sliding

Minnesota enters this series with a 5-11 record, a 3-7 mark over the last 10 games, and a -13 run differential that is the third-worst mark in the American League.

The Twins' pitching has been solid, as their 3.85 team ERA ranks 17th. But their offense has been abysmal.

Minnesota's team .OBP of .278 is the fifth-worst mark in the majors.

Carlos Correa (.488 OPS) and Byron Buxton (.673 OPS) have been struggling, and star Royce Lewis remains out due to a hamstring strain.

One bright spot has been first baseman Ty France, who is hitting .298 with a pair of homers and an .811 OPS.

Hello, Harrison Bader

Bader, who was a key part of the Mets' magical run last season, inked a one-year deal with Minnesota during the offseason.

As their starting center fielder, he's slashing .209/.244/.442 with three home runs and 10 RBI.

Bader has also been strikeout-prone, fanning 11 times in 15 games.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Juan Soto

It's just a matter of time before he erupts.

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Clay Holmes

As is noted above, Holmes' line during his last start did not match how he looked.

Which Twins player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

Byron Buxton

Even when he isn't at his best, Buxton is very dangerous.