The Mets are one of nine teams to never have a player hit 50 home runs in single season.
Pete Alonso is three home runs short of removing the Mets from the list. He also has a good chance to break Yankees OF Aaron Judge's single-season rookie home run record of 52.
The above two records are nice. However, if Alonso remains healthy and strong as he gets older, 2019 will prove to be the beginning of what has the potential to be an incredible career.
How many HR will Alonso hit in his prime?
According to the Boston Globe, FanGraphs and countless others, the prime of a baseball hitter's career spans the seven seasons when he's 25 to 31 years old.
Alonso will be 25 years old this December.
However, for the purpose of this post, I'm going to believe that Alonso is among the rare, elite group of players that drive through the prime like a truck. If he does this -- if he remains healthy, plays in at least 100 games every season, and if his power remains the same (let alone gets better) -- it's reasonable to think he could be just shy of 300 home runs by the time he hits free agency in 2024.
By the way, he will be 29 years old in 2024, which means Alonso could end up playing two of his seven prime years on the other side of being a free agent.
Alonso is likely going to be hurt at some point, though, and he'll no doubt trip on more than one slump. He's human, it happens.
In that reality, the one where he continues to hit a home run every three games, while missing a typical amount of time due to injury, he could in eight seasons have at least 350 home runs under his 31-year-old belt.
I'll be using the same, rough extrapolation throughout the rest of this post...
What does this level hitting from Alonso mean to the Mets?
For starters, his 350 home runs after just eight seasons would obliterate Darry Strawberry's 252, which currently stands as the most ever hit in franchise history. Like Darryl, Alonso would break the record before he is 30 years old.
Alonso would also net out around 30 to 35 career WAR after his eighth season, which -- though it will pass Strawberry for second-most in franchise history -- falls short of David Wright's 50.4.
Similarly, Alonso's roughly 830 career RBI after eight seasons would be short of Wright's leading 970. And his nearly 600 extra base hits will also be second to Wright, who picked up 658.
In a perfect world, though, Alonso keeps playing where Wright left off. I'll pretend the Mets eventually give a long-term extension to Alonso, who -- at a grizzly 37 years old -- retires with the Mets like Wright, having played 14 big-league seasons.
In the above world, if Alonso goes 14 seasons playing an average 120 games each season, he'll pass Wright for second in total games played with 1,680, but still fall short of Ed Kranepool's leading 1,853. However, he would most likely snap most of Wright's accomplishments.
In terms of where 350 home runs through eight of 14 seasons stands in league history, it would put Alonso already in the Top 100 of all time, despite being just 31 years old. Torii Hunter, Curtis Granderson, Lance Berkman and Yogi Berra are all in the same neighborhood.
And for the sake of argument, just for fun, let's say Alonso continued to average one home run every three or four games throughout his entire 14-year career. In that reality, he would end up with roughly 520 career home runs, landing him just shy of the Top 20 of all time and alongside Mickey Mantle, David Ortiz and Mike Schmidt.
OK, time to wake up...
The truth is that these sort of predictions and projections are unfair to Alonso, who could just as easily be the next Al Rosen as he may be Albert Pujols. That said, the guy has power.
Alonso hits the ball as hard -- if not harder -- than anyone else in the game.
He's brash, strong and focused, yet has a unique ability to remain hopeful.
Alonso is perfect for New York and perfect for the Mets, who have only produced a handful of elite hitters during their 58 seasons. I thought it was Michael Conforto or maybe Amed Rosario that would be the heir apparent to Wright. Now, though, it's Alonso, who has a clear path to be the organization's best offensive player of all time.
Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Contact) is lead writer of MetsBlog.com, which he created in 2003. He also hosts the MetsBlog Podcast, which you can subscribe to here. His new book, The New York Mets Fans' Bucket List, details 44 things every Mets fan should experience during their lifetime. To check it out, click here!
