Why Jalen Brunson signing is a make-or-break move for Leon Rose's Knicks presidency

A few thoughts on Jalen Brunson, Leon Rose and the Knicks:

The Brunson signing is a make-or-break move for Rose, in my opinion. Here's why:

The 2021 offseason and the cost of cap space

Rose and the Knicks used draft capital to create the cap space for Brunson’s contract (expected to be roughly $104 million deal over four years). New York traded three players signed in the 2021 offseason – Kemba Walker, Nerlens Noel and Alec Burks – to open up the cap space to sign Brunson.

At the time, those signings were touted as low-risk deals; easily tradable, if needed.

Maybe that was the case with Burks; one opposing team was open to giving up a second-round pick in exchange for the versatile guard/wing, per SNY sources.

The Knicks packaged Burks and Noel in a trade to the Pistons. They included two second-round picks and $6 million in the trade, according to ESPN. Are those contracts now viewed as easily tradable? That depends on your view of second-round picks and $6 million dollars, but the trade certainly wasn’t a neutral transaction for the Knicks.

The club also used draft capital when they traded Walker to Detroit.

The trade was executed on draft night. The club sent its own 2022 first-round pick, Walker and four second-round picks away; the Knicks received three future protected first-round picks and shed about $12.5 million in salary (that number includes the cap hold of the No. 11 pick).

In sum total, the Knicks sent out a 2022 first-round pick, six second-round picks and $6 million to trade the three veterans; they acquired three future first-round picks (all protected) in the process.

If Brunson helps propel the Knicks to sustained success, the team’s win-starved fanbase probably won’t care about New York’s subpar moves last summer.

But if the Knicks continue to flounder during the Brunson Era, Rose’s 2021 offseason will be heavily scrutinized.

The ties that bind Brunson and NYK

Rose, Brunson and Tom Thibodeau go way back. Brunson’s father, Rick, played with the Knicks for parts of three seasons between 1998-2001.

Thibodeau remembers watching a young Jalen Brunson shoot around at The Garden before games.

“He was 6 years old and mimicked (Alan Houston and Latrell Sprewell’s) moves,” Thibodeau recalled with a smile late in April 2021. “He’s become a darn good player and become a great kid, too."

Again, if the Brunson signing helps propel the Knicks to sustained success, his ties to the Knicks will give the fan base another reason to root for him.

But if things go sideways, the connections between Brunson and the Knicks will be put under the microscope. They extend beyond Thibodeau and Rick Brunson.

Rose was Brunson’s agent at CAA before he left to become president of the Knicks. Rose’s son, Sam Rose, is now listed as a co-agent for Brunson at CAA along with veteran agent Aaron Mintz.

At the moment, I don’t think you can say that any CAA-related Knicks transaction has sunken the team under Rose. But they haven’t led to sustained success either.

The Knicks extended Julius Randle -- a CAA client -- in the 2021 offseason ahead of Randle’s 2022 free agency (most teams probably would have made a similar decision based on the circumstances).

Obi Toppin is represented by CAA, but it’s worth noting he was the second or third player on various Knicks draft boards, so they felt they got a player whose value was higher than the eighth pick.

William Wesley, the Knicks executive vice president and senior basketball advisor, previously worked as a consultant for CAA. The Knicks recently hired CAA client Gersson Rosas to the front office as a senior basketball advisor.

Also, Rick Brunson is a former CAA client. He was one of Rose’s first player clients more than two decades ago.

Rick Brunson was finalizing a deal to be added to Tom Thibodeau’s staff last month.

Brunson and Thibodeau have known one another for more than three decades. So it was widely assumed that Brunson would be added to Thibodeau’s staff at some point. But the timing – less than four weeks ahead of free agency - certainly raised eyebrows among a few opposing executives.

This isn’t to suggest that Brunson lacks the experience or resume to coach in New York. It’s just the opposite, as I've written before.

It’s worth repeating that none of the moves/hires connected to one of Rose’s past relationships have sunken the franchise. But New York – to date – hasn’t landed a top star. The club is coming off a 37-win season.

Thus far, the Knicks, and Madison Square Garden’s, long relationship with CAA has yet to produce an extended period of success.

The Knicks ties to CAA – a mammoth sports/entertainment agency - span several years. Top CAA talent agent David “Doc” O’Connor was hired as MSG CEO in 2015, but the 28-month relationship didn’t produce much for the Knicks’ bottom line.

Will the signing cost the Knicks another draft pick?

According to Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News, members of the Mavericks felt the Knicks violated tampering rules in their pursuit of Brunson.

Will the Mavs pursue tampering charges against the Knicks? That’s unknown. Based on recent history, the Knicks will likely lose a draft pick if the league deems they’ve violated tampering regulations.

The Bulls and Heat both lost their next available second-round pick following tampering violations from the 2021 offseason.

Not much wiggle room after Brunson signing

How much flexibility will the Knicks have after the Brunson signing? That depends on several factors, including any future trades they make and the level of the salary cap.

But let’s say the Knicks sign RJ Barrett to an extension prior to the 2022-23 season. They’ll have Mitchell Robinson, Barrett and Brunson under contract for at least the next four seasons. That’s great for stability. But if Brunson’s contract ascends over the four years, the Knicks won’t have cap space next offseason unless they shed some veteran contracts.

If New York signed Barrett to an extension that starts at $30 million annually, the club would still be under the projected tax line for the 2023 offseason. So the Knicks could sign players via cap exceptions.

But they would not have significant money to sign other free agents. Again, this changes if the Knicks trade away any of their existing salary.

But the Brunson contract will limit their financial flexibility going forward.

Did the Knicks overpay for the point guard?

I think it’s hard to know the answer to that at the moment. I don’t think a majority of NBA teams in need of a point guard would have matched the Knicks’ offer to Brunson.

The Mavericks, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, offered Brunson a $106 million deal over five years last Thursday night.

Depending on where Brunson’s final contract lands, the Knicks will have paid the point guard a higher annual salary than the Mavs’ offer.

A source confirmed that members of the Mavs organization felt they would be roughly $2 million to $4 million short of New York’s offer entering free agency.

If that ends up being the case, the Knicks will have outbid the Mavs by a significant margin.

Would they have needed to make an offer that high to land Brunson? Only the people involved – Rose and NYK management, Brunson, his representation and Mavs management – know the answer to that question.

Brunson should be between the 10th- and 14th-highest paid players at his position next season, per The Athletic’s Mike Vorkunov. So, relative to the market, the contract is sensible.

But if the Knicks underperform in 2022-23 and beyond, I don’t think Rose and his group will be given high marks for signing Brunson to a reasonable contract. I think management will be under significant scrutiny if this signing – and any transaction that follows - doesn’t yield positive on-court results.