Who should fill out Mets' starting rotation in 2024? Breaking down internal and external options

You can point to a lot of things when trying to ascribe blame for the Mets' 2023 season falling apart, but at the very top of the list was their starting pitching -- or lack thereof. 

New York's rotation was poor and decimated by injury over the first two months of the season, but the Mets were somehow 30-27 on June 1. From that point through the rest of the month, the starting pitching did the Mets in, as the team went 6-19 and finished the month at 36-46 -- their season over for all intents and purposes.

Here are some of the ugly numbers the Mets' starting rotation -- consisting of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco, and Tylor Megill (with one strong start from David Peterson) -- put up over 25 games from June 2 through the end of the month:

- On eight occasions, the Mets' starting pitcher failed to complete five innings

- On six of those occasions, that starting pitcher failed to complete four innings

- There were seven games where the Mets scored five runs or more and lost, due almost entirely to bombs and short starts from Scherzer, Verlander, Megill, and Carrasco -- with the latter averaging a tick over 4.0 innings pitched in five starts during that span  

If the Mets had a bullpen that wasn't already reeling and overworked because of the loss of Edwin Diaz, perhaps they could've sustained the mess that was the starting rotation's performance in June. But they didn't.

And of all the pitchers who started a game that month, only one figures to be firmly in the Mets' plans in 2024.

As the Mets rebuild their rotation with an eye on returning to contention, here's how things could shake out...

The Locks

Senga and Jose Quintana. That's it.

Quintana's absence -- along with the early-season injury to Verlander and ineffectiveness of Scherzer -- crushed the Mets. And Quintana was terrific after returning at the end of July.

In 13 starts, he had a 3.57 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He completed at least five innings in 12 of those 13 starts, and finished at least six innings in nine of them.

Then there's Senga.

After signing a five-year deal during the offseason, Senga was viewed as a mid-rotation starter who perhaps had the upside of a No. 2. But he pitched like an ace, and he'll be receiving lots of Cy Young award votes for his efforts.

With Senga at the top of the rotation and Quintana in the middle, the Mets need three pitchers to fill in around them.

The Internal Candidates

The Mets could perhaps turn to one of their in-house candidates to fill the No. 5 spot in the rotation, but the other two spots will have to be filled externally.

Given how Megill performed in 25 starts in 2023 -- posting a 4.70 ERA while allowing batters to slash .282/.362/.440 against him -- it's hard to justify him being part of any competition for the rotation entering 2024.

Peterson has been wildly inconsistent during his four-year career, alternating good and bad years, but he performed relatively well down the stretch in 2023, with a 3.88 ERA in 10 starts from Aug. 4 through the end of the season.

He could be part of a competition with Joey Lucchesi, who spent much of this past season with Triple-A Syracuse, but who excelled when called upon, with a 2.89 ERA over nine starts. 

Lucchesi doesn't miss many bats, though (his K/9 continues to dip and was just 6.2 in 2023), so entrusting a rotation spot to him could be dicey.

Jose Butto could also be a factor.

The 25-year-old, who was rushed up before he was ready in 2022 and made one forgettable start against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, had a strong showing in 2023.

In 42.0 innings (seven starts and two relief appearances), Butto posted a 3.64 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

The External Options

The most obvious move for the Mets this offseason would be to sign 25-year-old Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whose stuff is expected to translate in the majors to the point where he could be an immediate ace upon his arrival.

Beyond Yamamoto, the cleanest fit via free agency could be Jordan Montgomery, but his price tag could become bloated beyond where it should be due to the impressive postseason performance he's having with the Rangers.

There's also Shota Imanaga, who -- like Yamamoto -- will be posted this offseason after pitching in Japan.

Other bold names in free agency include Blake Snell (who is about to win the Cy Young award) and Aaron Nola. But they come with serious red flags, including age (they're both entering their age-31 season) and performance concerns. Nola has had an ERA over 4.45 in two of the last three seasons, while Snell does not often pitch deep into games and has battle injuries throughout his career.

If the Mets turn to the trade market, they could find three incredibly interesting names there: Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, and Dylan Cease. 

Burnes and Glasnow are under team control through 2024 and could be dangled by the cost-conscious Brewers and Rays, while Cease is under team control through 2025 but could be made available by a White Sox team coming off a 101-loss season.

The Prospects

The Mets have four prospects who could make their big league debut in 2024, but it's unlikely any of them will be competing for a spot in the Opening Day rotation.

Those prospects are Mike Vasil, Christian Scott, Dominic Hamel, and Justin Jarvis.

Vasil still needs to figure out Triple-A Syracuse, while Scott -- who dominated across three levels last season and topped out with Double-A Binghamton -- should get his first taste of Triple-A early in 2024.

Like Scott, Hamel has not yet pitched above Double-A.

Meanwhile, Jarvis -- who was acquired for Mark Canha at the trade deadline -- did not perform particularly well in 2023 while splitting the year between Double-A and Triple-A.

A little further away is Blade Tidwell, who perhaps has the highest upside of any starting pitcher the Mets have in the minors.

Tidwell finished this past season with Binghamton, and will likely be back there to open next season. He could possibly force his way to the majors in 2024 if he dominates, but a more likely big league ETA for Tidwell is 2025.