The fact that J.A. Happ and Cole Hamels have been dealt in the last 24 hours is a direct indication that Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom are not being traded this season. If the Yankees or Cubs felt deGrom and Syndergaard could have been had, they'd still be working to get them. They obviously moved on to Happ and Hamels, respectively, because they are convinced Syndergaard and deGrom are not going anywhere.
Zack Wheeler is now among the league's remaining starting pitchers expected to soon be traded. And the way the Mets handle him will likely determine whether they are preparing for a full rebuild or will try again to win in 2019.
SNY's Andy Martino is reporting that Wheeler should return a team's top-10 prospect. I have been told a return could bring back one or two prospects among a team's top 15-20.
The reality is that we may both be right; the ranking of the player will depend entirely on the quality of the other team's farm system. The No. 10 prospect from the Brewers would probably be the No. 20 prospect with the Dodgers.
In either case, I'm looking less at the incoming player's ranking and more about when the player will be ready to make a meaningful contribution to a big-league roster. The key word is "meaningful." Why? The date of his readiness and his potential production -- not his relative ranking -- is what will indicate the direction of the franchise.
Here's what I mean:
What does it say if Wheeler is dealt for a young, position player ready to help next year?
In this scenario, it likely means deGrom and Syndergaard will be here next season when the Mets intend to again try and compete for a spot in the postseason.
This seems hard to imagine given the number of holes the Mets will need to fill, even with deGrom and Syndergaard on the roster. Next year's team is set up to have a productive outfield with Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Yoenis Cespedes returning later in the season. Amed Rosario is slowly turning the corner and set up for a potential breakout season at shortstop. To win 90 games, though, this winter the Mets will need to acquire a younger, more agile second baseman, a full-time catcher (unless they still believe in Travis d'Arnaud), at least two starting pitchers, multiple relievers and a first or third baseman (since Todd Frazier can play one or the other).
In trading Wheeler for a player that can fill one of the above holes, it means they will not need to spend on that filled position. The saved money can then be used to replace Wheeler with a free agent arm, such as Trevor Cahill, Patrick Corbin, Gio Gonzalez or someone else from the long list of Nos. 3 and 4 starting pitchers.
By adding, say, Gonzalez to deGrom, Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Jason Vargas, the Mets will again have the potential for an elite pitching staff. That group, with the current outfield, Rosario, a better bullpen, an affordable, defensive catcher and a power-hitting third or first baseman would be fun to watch and should be capable of winning 85-90 games.
The other thing to realize is that the Mets will have a new GM this winter. It would be unfair to let John Ricco, JP Ricciardi and Omar Minaya deal away the team's best assets in advance of bringing in someone new. If anyone is going to be tasked with executing multiple franchise-changing deals, it should be the person charged with changing the franchise, not his temporary predecessors. By keeping deGrom and Syndergaard and patching together a team that can compete in 2019, it allows the next GM to asses talent and be in control of selling next summer if the Mets are struggling.
In less than one year, the new GM could make available deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, Anthony Swarzak, Frazier, d'Arnaud, Juan Lagares, Wilmer Flores and possibly Vargas.
What does it mean if Wheeler is dealt for one or two high-ceiling, but not-yet-ready prospects?
It likely means the Wilpons will task the new GM with rebuilding the team as soon as this winter.
The way I see it, if they don't Wheeler for a win-now player who frees up salary, they're not going to have enough money or options in free agency to fill all of next year's needs, plus sign a free agent to replace Wheeler.
Therefore, if the new GM is not able to fill every hole and make a legit run at the division in 2019, he or she may as well deal every top asset this winter when more teams will be interested.
Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Contact) is lead writer of MetsBlog.com, which he created in 2003. He also hosts the MetsBlog Podcast, which you can subscribe to here. His new book, The New York Mets Fans' Bucket List, details 44 things every Mets fan should experience during their lifetime. To check it out, click here!