Stay or Go: Should Mets re-sign Seth Lugo?

It has been quite a run for Seth Lugo with the Mets.

Selected in the 34th round of the 2011 MLB Draft when his first name was still Jacob, Lugo first cracked the big league roster in 2016, when he burst on the scene and spun a 2.67 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while making eight starts and nine relief appearances.

After working mainly as a starter in 2017, Lugo has been an extremely important bullpen piece for the Mets ever since (excluding five starts in 2018 and seven starts in 2020), and peaked in 2018 and 2019 when he was one of the best relievers in baseball. 

Lugo had a down 2020 during the shortened season, but bounced back nicely in 2021 and 2022, with a 3.56 ERA (3.77 FIP) and 1.22 WHIP in 111.1 innings over 108 appearances while striking out 124 -- an impressive 10.0 K's per nine.

While Lugo isn't the dominant force he was in 2018 and 2019, he is still very valuable. And he was one of the Mets' main bridges to Edwin Diaz in 2022.

Along with Diaz and Lugo, Adam Ottavino and Trevor May are also about to become free agents. So the Mets have plenty of decisions to make as they rebuild their bullpen for 2023 and beyond.

Lugo was uncertain about his future after the Mets were eliminated from the playoffs by the San Diego Padres in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series at Citi Field. Shortly after the game, Lugo told reporters he was going back to the field to take some pictures with his family.

Will that night be Lugo's last in a Mets uniform?

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO LET LUGO GO

There are two main reasons why it might be wise for the Mets to move on from Lugo.

The first is that -- due in part to a partially torn UCL in his right elbow that he's been managing for quite some time -- Lugo doesn't pitch back-to-back games very often. Of Lugo's 62 appearances in 2022 (including the postseason), just nine of them were back-to-backs. And in four of those nine appearances, Lugo gave up runs.

The above was more palatable when Lugo was providing more length, but he pitched at least 2.0 innings just five times in 2022 -- a dramatic dip from the 19 instances in 2019 where he went 2.0 or more innings in relief.

When you combine Lugo's lessened role when it comes to multi-inning stints with his inability to pitch back-to-back very often, you get someone who -- while still very good at times -- is quite limited.

The second concerning thing about Lugo is that his stuff isn't quite what it used to be. And it can vary wildly from game-to-game.

Lugo's average fastball in 2022 was 94.5, which is in line with where he's been since 2018. But there were many games where it sat in the low 90s and his vaunted curve wasn't much of a weapon. Other times, Lugo was downright nasty, with his plus curve making hitters look silly as his fastball ticked up to 97 mph.

Lugo's advanced numbers show mostly encouraging things (which we'll discuss in a bit), but he was well below average in 2022 when it came to his whiff percentage and barrel percentage allowed, and was among the worst in the league in chase rate.

The partially torn UCL, noted above, is also a concern. However, Lugo has been pitching through it without issue since 2017. And there are plenty of pitchers -- like Masahiro Tanaka, who suffered a partially torn UCL in 2014 and pitched through it in the majors until 2020 -- who are able to manage it just fine, as Lugo has done so far.

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP LUGO

Lugo, despite the shortcoming listed above, is still an above average reliever who has the ability to be a lockdown guy at times.

His ERA+ was 108 in 2022 after being 115 in 2021. So him being above average isn't an opinion, it's a fact. And while Lugo's strikeouts per nine dipped a bit this season -- from 10.7 to 9.6, his control was better as he walked 2.5 per nine after walking 3.7 per nine in 2021.

Lugo's advanced stats also tell a mostly nice tale.

The spin on his curve in 2022 was in the 99th percentile, and he was well above average in hard hit percentage (in the 86th percentile). Lugo was also above average in fastball velocity, fastball spin, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG.

Lugo's final numbers in 2022 were also skewed a bit by a few rough outings from mid-September through the end of the regular season, which came on the heels of a 26-appearance stretch from June 25 to Sept. 7 when he gave up just six runs in 26.1 innings while pitching to a 2.05 ERA (2.73 FIP) and holding hitters to a sparkling .222/.297/.283 triple slash and just one home run.

Additionally, while Lugo can't pitch back-to-back very often and his multi-inning stints have gone down, he has still been a very reliable reliever who takes the ball a lot.

Over the last four full seasons, Lugo has made 223 appearances -- an average of 56 per season.

VERDICT

Lugo made a shade under $4 million in 2022 during what was his last year of arbitration.

If the Mets are able to get him back on a one-year deal at a slightly higher value, it could be a good play to re-sign him.

But if Lugo is seeking multiple years or much more than what he made in 2022, it's time to move on -- especially with lots of intriguing relievers about to hit the free agent market.