Ranking 10 Mets starting pitching options via free agency and trade with rotation still in need

The Mets won't make a bigger move this offseason -- and might not make a bigger move for the rest of their franchise history -- than the one they made while signing Juan Soto to a 15-year deal for $765 million.

But while Soto transforms the franchise and the lineup, the Mets remain short in the starting rotation, with just four locks in what is expected to be a six-man staff.

If you squint, you can see serious upside for all four pitchers currently projected to be in the rotation -- Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, and David Peterson.

But you can also see concerns for each -- Senga (coming back from a year lost to injury), Holmes (transitioning from reliever to starter), Montas (4.84 ERA in 2024), and Peterson (strong 2024, but inconsistent past).

Because of the above, the Mets absolutely need to add one more legitimate starting pitcher -- if not two.

And one of the pitchers they add should have the ability to pitch near the top of the rotation.

The Mets, by engaging the White Sox on Garrett Crochet before he was traded to the Red Sox, have made it clear that they're willing to trade top prospects this offseason in the right deal. Luckily for them, there are still lots of intriguing trade options available.

Here's who New York's top 10 starting pitching targets should be, ranked...

10. Jack Flaherty

Free agent

With the market for free agent starting pitchers erupting (eight years for Max Fried, five years for Blake Snell, three years for a 35-year-old Nathan Eovaldi), Flaherty -- who is entering his age-29 season -- seems set up well to cash in.

But while Flaherty has ace upside, as evidenced by his 2019 season with the Cardinals, he has been wildly inconsistent and besieged by injuries during his eight-year career. Those injuries include shoulder woes that hampered him in 2021 and 2022.

On a short-term deal, Flaherty would be a smart gamble. But the guess here is that someone will give him a four- or five-year contract.

9. Nick Pivetta

Free agent, qualifying offer attached

With Pivetta rejecting Boston's qualifying offer, the Mets -- who already incurred a draft pick penalty by signing Soto -- would lose even more draft pick capital for 2025 if they sign Pivetta.

Pivetta has swing-and miss-stuff and has been a workhorse, throwing 142.0 or more innings each of the last four seasons for the Red Sox. But he has never had an ERA under 4.00, and is susceptible to the home run ball -- allowing 1.5 homers per nine innings during his eight-year career.

8. Jesus Luzardo

Marlins, trade candidate

Luzardo is entering his age-27 season, will earn just $8.6 million in 2025, and has two years remaining of team control. He also has tantalizing upside, which he displayed with Miami in 2022 and 2023.

But Luzardo had a tough 2024, pitching to a 5.00 ERA in 66.2 innings before a stress reaction in his lower back ended his season in August after an elbow injury impacted him early.

Luzardo threw a career-high 178.2 innings in 2023, but has eclipsed more than 100.0 innings just twice in his career.

7. Luis Castillo

Mariners, trade candidate

The Mariners are listening to offers for Castillo, who is entering his age-32 season and has three years and $72.3 million remaining on his contract, which also includes a vesting option for the 2028 season based on innings pitched in 2027.

Castillo's fastball and slider were very strong offerings in 2024, via Baseball Savant, with his four-seamer averaging 95.6 mph. And he has been as reliable as it gets when it comes to taking the ball, throwing 150.1 innings or more in every full season since 2018.

There's some concern Castillo could be entering a downturn -- his ERA+ was 101 in 2024 after being 118 in 2023. But he was still good last season, with a 3.64 ERA (3.91 FIP) and 1.16 WHIP while striking out 9.0 batters per nine. And given the money he's owed, it likely wouldn't take any of the Mets' very best prospects (Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Brandon Sproat, Ryan Clifford) to get a deal done.

6. Sean Manaea

Free agent

Manaea was tremendous for the Mets in 2024, and he pitched like an ace down the stretch after he dropped his arm angle. After the season, he expressed a sincere desire to be back.

The Mets have interest in a reunion with Manaea, who is entering his age-33 season. But it's possible his market gets to a point New York is not comfortable going. It's also fair to wonder whether he can repeat what he did late in 2023.

If any team offers Manaea five years, it's very hard to see a scenario where he's back in New York. But if his contract winds up being something like $100 million for four seasons or a three-year deal at a higher average annual value (perhaps $85 million or so over three years), it could make a ton of sense to bring Manaea back.

5. Walker Buehler

Free agent

To me, Buehler is easily the most intriguing MLB free agent pitcher this offseason.

Entering his age-30 season, Buehler -- who was one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2018 to 2021 -- could sign a two-year, prove-it deal that contains an opt-out after the 2025 season. That makes the risk low and the reward incredibly high.

Buehler struggled during the regular season in 2024 in what was his first year back after Tommy John surgery, but he started to resemble his vintage self during the Dodgers' World Series run, when he closed things out in Game 5 at Yankee Stadium.

4. Dylan Cease

Padres, trade candidate

With Cease a year from free agency and owed roughly $13 million in what is his final season of arbitration, the Padres have reportedly made him available.

The right-hander can have consistency issues. Cease sandwiched a year where he had a 4.48 ERA (in 2023) between seasons where he was a top-four finisher in Cy Young voting (2022 and 2024).

When he's on, Cease is dynamic. He also posts up, having thrown 177.0 innings or more each of the last three years. And he was terrific for San Diego last season, with a 3.47 ERA (3.10 FIP) and 1.06 WHIP while striking out 224 batters in 189.1 innings -- a rate of 10.6 per nine.

3. Framber Valdez

Astros, trade candidate

Like Cease, Valdez is a year from free agency. And like San Diego, Houston has reportedly made Valdez available.

Valdez's expected salary via arbitration is $18 million, making it heftier than Cease. But that obviously wouldn't be an issue for the Mets. And if the Astros really are retooling on the fly (they've also made superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker available), the Mets should make a serious push for Valdez.

The 31-year-old has been one of the truly elite pitchers in baseball since 2021, and has averaged a shade over 190.0 innings pitched each of the last three seasons.

2. Jared Jones

Pirates, trade candidate

The other day, before I saw the report that Pittsburgh had made Jones available, I scoffed at the idea that they could trade him. But if Jones can truly be obtained, every team in baseball should be interested.

And he should be of supreme interest to the Mets, who have the pitching infrastructure to get the most out of the 23-year-old fireballer.

Jones will make less than $1 million in 2025 and isn't even arbitration-eligible until 2027, so the cost to acquire him would be massive. But it could be more than worth it for a pitcher with the ability Jones possesses.

1. Roki Sasaki

International free agent

Because of his age (23), stuff (otherworldly), and cost (close to nothing), every team in baseball will be making a play for Sasaki, who -- because of his age and international signing rules -- can sign only a minor league contract, and will be paid via his team's IFA bonus pool.

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said during the Winter Meetings that New York's initial pitch to Sasaki was already on the way to him. Sasaki is expected to meet with teams in the coming weeks and sign at some in the middle or end of January.

Because Sasaki won't be signing until so late, the Mets -- and every other team -- will have to view the potential addition of him as a bonus. But what an amazing bonus it will be for the team that lands him.