NFL scouts and execs on what a long-term deal between Giants and Leonard Williams could look like

When Leonard Williams seemed headed towards free agency last year, he had his sights set on a $100 million contract. He was never going to get it.

He might now.

That could be the rewards for what has been the best year of the 26-year-old Williams’ career, if he hits the open market as an unrestricted free agent in March. He has a career-high 8 ½ sacks with four games remaining, good enough for seventh in the entire NFL. In his first full season with the Giants, he’s finally fulfilling the pass-rushing potential the Jets never saw in his 4 1/2 years.

And when players start piling up sacks, that’s when they usually end up getting paid.

“The one thing that really shows up, I think is he has tremendous finish right now of getting to the quarterback or in pursuit getting to the runner,” said Giants coach Joe Judge. “He’s made a lot of disruptive plays. A lot of things don’t show up on stat sheets. If they’re doubling him, someone else is single, so where’s the pressure coming from? There are a lot of things that Leonard does by just kind of the caliber of athlete he is.

“But to me, the finish he’s playing with is really making a big difference for us as a team.”

That’s what Giants GM Dave Gettleman was counting on when he acquired the player Judge described as “freakishly talented” from the Jets for a third- and a fifth-round draft pick at the trading deadline last year – that the right coaching and system could turn Williams into the finisher he has never been. That’s why the Giants doubled down on the deal and made him their franchise player in February, paying him $16.1 million for the year.

Now the trick is to keep him. Williams has expressed a desire to stay with the Giants. The Giants spoke to him about a long-term contract before they used the franchise tag on him and, according to a source, they expect to try again, especially if Gettleman is still around. It seems likely that something will eventually be worked out -- unless Williams has suddenly priced himself out of town.

“You’d have to think his priority is staying with the Giants,” said a former NFL executive. “They seem to love him there. They found a way to get the most out of him. It’s a perfect fit. And he might only be scratching the surface. Why would he want to leave?”

There is no indication that he does, but money will be a factor. Williams has yet to experience the benefits of free agency since before the Giants used the franchise tag on him he was playing on his rookie deal. He has seen the salaries of pass rushers explode in recent years, with deals that average $20-25 million per year becoming routine.

And he has always seen himself as comparable to those top-tier players, even if few others did.

Now, though, he has the numbers to back it up. He’s always been excellent against the run and very good at pressuring the quarterback, but he wasn’t much of a finisher. Now, after adding some upper body strength in the offseason and benefitting from defensive coordinator Patrick Graham’s scheme, Williams has added that final piece to his game.

Is it enough?

“He’s a tough call because this is really the first year where you’d consider that type of massive contract for him,” said the former NFL executive. “You have to ask: Did the Giants open the floodgates for him? Is this just the beginning? Or is it just the peak – a career year?”

“Sometimes it does take a few years for guys to put it all together,” added an NFC scout. “He’s always had the tools. He’s always been a better player than (fans and media) thought. He rushes with power. He’s got moves. He’s smart.

“If it finally did click for him – and he’s only 26? It’s not easy to find a guy like that.”

That may be true, but because of Williams’ position, his value is complicated. He’s not an edge rusher, and those are the ones who typically get the top contracts. So he’s unlikely to end up near the Joey-Bosa-Myles Garrett neighborhood of $25-27 million per season. His target, according to several NFL agents, should be something more like the four-year deals the Indianapolis Colts gave DeForest Buckner (four years, $84 million, $56 million guaranteed) and that the Kansas City Chiefs gave Chris Jones (four years, $80 million, $60 million guaranteed). That brings him up to $100 million if the deal is for five years.

But whether he can get $20-21 million per year with $60 million guaranteed is complicated, too. For one thing, many around the NFL are worried about what free agency will look like in March after a season played in a pandemic with revenues projected to drop by $3 billion. The salary cap is expected to drop for the first time since it began in 1994, perhaps as much as 12 percent, all the way to $175 million.

That could leave some teams scrambling and cutting players just to get under the cap. And it will absolutely have an effect on the market. That actually could benefit the Giants who project to be about $20 million under a $175 million cap, but could add room by releasing players like tackle Nate Solder ($14 million), guard Kevin Zeitler ($12 million) or receiver Golden Tate ($6 million).

So they could definitely afford to bring back Williams if the bidding doesn’t get out of hand. And it might not, considering there are other premium pass rushers who could be available too. Players like Yannick Ngakoue, Matthew Judon, Bud Dupree, and Shaq Barrett could all be available looking for a cut of what might be a very small free agency pie.

“A deal with the Giants makes too much sense,” said one NFL agent. “They’re not going to be able to get a player like him on the market, and he might not be able to get the money he wants on the market. The Giants can afford to give him $20-22 million per year, maybe with an out in the deal so he gets another shot at free agency in a few years when the cap is back to normal.

“They’re a good match right now. It’s working. And when it’s working, both sides find a way.”