Mets' updated Top 20 prospects for 2023 MLB season

It's time to update my Top 20 Mets prospects list entering the 2023 MLB season.

If you are looking for an overarching look at the system beyond just the Top 20, be sure to check out my state of the Mets' system. I look at this system as one that is improving but will need some of the lower minors’ prospects to establish themselves with the pending graduations of the likes of Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and -- possibly at some point this year -- Ronny Mauricio.

Without further ado, here is my updated Top 20...

20. RHP Bryce Montes de Oca

Montes de Oca will miss some time to start the season due to a stress reaction in his elbow. But when he is on the mound, he has some of the most unique stuff of any reliever in baseball. He is up to 102 mph, with horizontal break that can exceed 20 inches. One of his pitches this spring was 101 mph with 21 inches of horizontal break, and there was not a single fastball thrown in the majors in 2022 that matched those numbers -- and that is counting 400,000 fastballs.

He needs to remain healthy and control the strike zone. But if he does -- with his sinker, cutter and slider -- he has a chance to be a legitimate eighth inning type of reliever. Given his big league readiness and potential, that warrants a spot in my top 20.

MLB ETA: Already debuted

19. OF Simon Juan

The Mets' top signing in the 2022 international free agent class, who signed for $1.9 million, is someone the Mets think of in the same light that they did Alex Ramirez at 16 years old. Juan has a projectable build and potential to show some of all the five tools. He struggled in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League with a .633 OPS, but there is still sky-high upside here, and he should move stateside this year.

MLB ETA: 2027

18. RHP Layonel Ovalles

Ovalles is one of my breakout candidates for this year. He struggled upon being promoted to Low-A St. Lucie, but the stuff is really intriguing. He has a fastball that will touch 97 mph with spin rates in the 2,700 rpm range, which gives hope that it can be a true plus pitch. His slider gets a lot of swings and misses, but he needs development with his curve and changeup. He bounced between starting and relief in 2022, but the Mets plan to push him as a starter in 2023. If he can really begin to refine his stuff, he could be someone  who jumps up this list next year.

MLB ETA: 2025

17. SS Dangelo Sarmiento

Sarmiento is a slender build at 6-foot-2 and 160 pounds. He was given a $700,000 bonus in the 2022 international signing class. He may have the best natural defensive skills among shortstops in the system and he is a true plus runner. Sarmiento showed some bat-to-ball skills, hitting .295 in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League. He also had a reasonable 16.8 percent strikeout rate and a 9.9 percent walk rate, showing he has the ability to lay off some pitches. Power may not be a part of his game, but his athleticism and defensive skills should make him a higher floor prospect than most international signings.

MLB ETA: 2027

16. 3B Jacob Reimer

Reimer was the Mets' fourth-round pick in the 2022 draft, where he signed for an over-slot bonus of $775,000 coming out of the same high school that produced Taijuan Walker. Reimer played shortstop in high school but is now a third baseman -- and he has the tools to fit there. He is a bat-first player showing above average raw power and impressive pitch recognition skills. Defensively, he will need work on his lateral quickness, but he has the arm for the position.

MLB ETA: 2026

15. RHP Joel Diaz

Diaz was aggressively put in Low-A St. Lucie in 2022, and that led to some inconsistent results, but his fastball is up to 96 mph and he shows the ability to control a curve and changeup. He can throw strikes, but still needs to improve his command within the strike zone to reduce hard contact. Diaz could repeat Low-A St. Lucie to start 2023 before making his way to High-A Brooklyn.

MLB ETA: 2026

14. RHP Jose Butto

Butto had that one-outing cameo in Philadelphia in 2022, where he was called up -- pretty much out of necessity -- and not ready. He went back to Triple-A Syracuse and, in September, posted a 1.01 ERA in 26.2 innings pitched. This spring, his velocity ticked up to touching 97 mph. His changeup is the best in the Mets' system -- he just needs to develop more consistency with his breaking ball. Butto's upside is likely capped as a back-end starter, but given his 40-man roster status -- as well as the need for pitching depth -- I’d expect him to be a factor in 2023.

MLB ETA: Already debuted

13. OF Nick Morabito

Morabito was the No. 75 overall selection in the 2022 draft. He was a pop-up prospect this spring who wasn’t on the top-100 radar, as he didn’t participate in the summer showcase circuit, but scouts flocked to the Washington, D.C., area and got eyes on him. He is a plus runner and athlete with some power potential, but he will need to show he can make consistent contact. Morabito has some defensive versatility, and one scout told me that he reminded him a bit of Whit Merrifield at the same age.

MLB ETA: 2026

12. SS Jesus Baez

The Mets signed Baez for $275,000 in the 2022 international signing period and have been very impressed with his advanced feel to hit -- and hit for power, as he had 16 extra-base hits, including seven home runs, over 54 games in the Dominican Summer League. His likely long-term home defensively is at third base. In the early going he is looking like a possible gem from the Mets' 2022 international signing class.

MLB ETA: 2027

11. RHP Calvin Ziegler

Ziegler has looked as advertised since he was drafted in the second round in 2021. He has big-time stuff with command development needed. His fastball has plus spin rates and vertical break, and tops out at 97 mph. With those metrics, that 97 can look more like 100. His hammer curve has induced a lot of swings and misses, and he scrapped a changeup for a splitter that showed promise. 

Ziegler's walk rate was high last year (6.8 walks per nine), but he didn’t allow hard contact or really many hits at all (26 allowed in 46.2 innings). He dealt with some bicep tendinitis and arm soreness that limited his innings in 2022. He is expected to miss some time to start 2023 as he underwent surgery to remove bone spurs in his pitching elbow. There is a wide variance of potential long-term outcomes and a lot of that depends on his health, as well as the improvement of his command and control.

MLB ETA: 2026

10. RHP Mike Vasil

Vasil is an arm the Mets believe they stole in the eighth round in the 2021 draft. Coming out of high school, he was a top-25 prospect in that draft class but chose to fulfill his commitment to Virginia, where the Cavaliers turned him into a sinker-baller -- and that led to inconsistent results. The Mets have brought back his four-seam fastball approach and he has been up to 97 mph. 

Vasil has a four-pitch-mix and looks the part of a back-end starter with some upside for more if he can continue to tap into his secondary stuff. He was sent to the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 2.93 ERA with a 10.6 strikeouts per nine and made the Rising Stars Game.

He made an appearance in a big league spring training game March 23 against the Braves and struck out Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna and Eddie Rosario. Vasil should start with Double-A Binghamton.

MLB ETA: 2024

9. RHP Dom Hamel

Hamel was the Mets' organizational pitcher of the year after posting a 3.25 ERA across 119 innings pitched in 2022, including a 2.59 ERA for High-A Brooklyn. He still needs some work on his command, but it has improved. He was able to show up some in the World Baseball Classic for Team Puerto Rico. Hamel is a big spin rate guy who is an analytically based staff’s dream project. He projects as a No. 4-type starter who I expect to start with Double-A Binghamton.

MLB ETA: 2024

8. RHP Blade Tidwell

Last spring, Tidwell trended toward being a top-15 pick after his growth with the Collegiate U.S. National team saw an uptick in his metrics while he maintained his stuff. He had shoulder tendinitis, causing him to miss two months, and that led to his drop down to the Mets in the second round. He has a starter build at 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, and a four-pitch mix headlined by a plus fastball that sits 94-97 mph and touches 99. His best secondary offerings are his mid-to-upper 80s slider and a changeup that gets swings and misses. The curve lags behind now, but with some growth, Tidwell should begin with High-A Brooklyn and has the potential to be a mid-rotation starter.

MLB ETA: 2025

7. 1B/DH Mark Vientos

Vientos had a strong spring and, I think, is pushing towards that right-handed designated hitter/backup first-baseman type of role. I’d expect Vientos awaiting a call for when injuries or performance warrant it. He hit .315/.401/.692 versus left-handed pitching in the minors in 2022. Defensively he was a little better at third this spring than he has been, but I still think his long-term home is at first base or as a designated hitter.

MLB ETA: Already debuted

6. SS Ronny Mauricio

One of the stars of spring training, Mauricio really has filled out physically and has allowed his raw power to become in-game power. It sure looks like 25 home runs to me. He still needs to work on his pitch selectivity and the Mets need to figure out where he is playing defense -- I recommend trying left field. Mauricio’s stock has been a bit of a roller coaster the last couple of years, but I think it is heading up and to the right after his Dominican Winter League and spring training this year.

MLB ETA: 2023

5. SS Jett Williams

Williams was my favorite player in the 2022 draft class. He was the smallest player in the class but had some of the best bat-to-ball skills. His size may limit his home run output down the road, but I think this is a plus athlete who can play shortstop, second or even center field if you’d like. I am looking forward to seeing his plate discipline and approach in his first pro season. However, I believe this is a dynamic player who will hit for average, doubles, triples and steal some bags for you.

MLB ETA: 2026

4. OF Alex Ramirez

An exciting prospect who has now made his way onto top-100 prospect lists, he needs some growth in his pitch recognition skills and a bit on his swing path to reduce the holes in his zone. While Ramirez may not have a truly elite trait, he has above-average tools across the board and should have no issue sticking in center field long term. He should start in High-A Brooklyn and could make his way to Double-A Binghamton this summer.

MLB ETA: 2025

3. C Kevin Parada

Parada had a great opportunity this spring to get the invite to big league camp and work with catching instructor Glenn Sherlock as well as the chance to catch big league arms in bullpen sessions and talk through their mindset. Director of player development Kevin Howard told MLB.com: "From what we saw last summer, his receiving and throwing needed a lot of improvement, and I’ve never seen a guy improve at both so much this quickly."

Coming out of Georgia Tech, Parada was considered a bat-first catcher. If he can stick behind the plate, though, the Mets will have a good problem on their hands. Alvarez, right now, is the top catching prospect in the sport. It is possible that this time next year, Parada takes that throne.

MLB ETA: 2025

2. 3B Brett Baty

I have voiced this everywhere. Written it here, spoke about it on The Mets Pod and even tweeted about it. I believe Baty should be the Opening Day third baseman. He has hit this spring, you have seen some great defensive flashes, and bench coach Eric Chavez has publicly declared him big league ready defensively. If he’s not on the roster, I simply ask -- why? Long-term, Baty should hit for average, get on base and bring 20-to-25-home-run power to the table.

MLB ETA: Already debuted

1. C Francisco Alvarez

Alvarez struggled with his bat this spring, but the Mets are not worried about that. They were very satisfied with the defensive improvements he made and the level of work he put in. He will start in Triple-A, but I bet you see him in 2023. He has potential middle-of-the-order bat and future All-Star written all over him.

MLB ETA: Already debuted