The Mets need to prepare themselves the real possibility of trading Jacob deGrom next week, even though this is the last thing they expected to be doing.
There are at least six teams working to add a top-tier starting pitcher and all have been in contact with and asked the Mets what it would take to acquire deGrom.
Mets assistant GM John Ricco has repeatedly said in public that, while the Mets will consider every offer, it's very unlikely a team will meet their lofty asking price for deGrom.
The thing is, while demand has remained the same, with the Mariners, Rockies, Brewers, Cubs, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, and D-backs all looking to help their rotation, supply is sinking like a stone.
The Rays want more for Chris Archer than the Mets are asking for deGrom, according to people familiar with the market for pitching. At the same time, while it was once believed that Blake Snell (Rays), Michael Fulmer (Tigers) Carlos Martinez (Cardinals), and Noah Syndergaard (Mets) could be had in trade, all four just went on the disabled list.
Cole Hamels is drawing interest, but teams have grown less interested due to his $14 million price tag and recent struggles.
Similarly, though teams were once hot for Jays pitcher J.A. Happ, he has a 6.60 ERA since June, during which he's lost to the postseason contending Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, and Braves.
With Snell, Fulmer, Martinez, and Syndergaard no longer an option, the market after Hamels and Happ downshifts to Nathan Eovaldi (Rays), Mike Fiers (Tigers), Dan Straily (Marlins), and Zack Wheeler.
As a result, with so many teams still preferring to add an experienced, elite arm, such as the Yankees and Dodgers, three MLB insiders predicted to me that at least one team will grow frustrated and desperate enough to meet Ricco's asking price for deGrom.
And if that happens, what will the Mets do?
Earlier this month, I heard from people close to the Mets and player that expectations were deGrom would not be traded this July and that the two sides would continue working on a contract extension through November. If the talks failed, then and only then would the Mets proactively seek to deal deGrom. That is because more teams will be able to be interested and the Mets would be able to better acquire elite, young, controllable players with big-league experience.
But again, if presented with that offer now, what will the Mets do?
From what I can tell, there are only four contending teams capable of putting together a rich enough package to get deGrom, and three of them -- the Phillies, Yankees, and Braves -- probably need to pay a rivalry tax given the potential for blowback if things go wrong. The other team is the Dodgers.
My educated hunch is that, if the Yankees offer Miguel Andújar, Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield, the Mets will give it some serious thought before probably saying, no. It'll be equally difficult to ship deGrom to the Braves or Phillies because they'll need to face him multiple times each season. In reverse, the Braves and Phillies (who are already reluctant to trade prospects) probably don't want to put top prospects on the Mets, who they'll have to face multiple times each season.
In other words, while other teams are probably interested, the Dodgers may be the only team willing and able to make a considerable offer to get Jake in July. It's crazy, but even after trading top prospects to get Manny Machado from the O's, the Dodgers still have Yadier Alvarez, Alex Verdugo, Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Andrew Toles and promising C prospect Keibert Ruiz.
It's easy to say, 'We'll consider all options,' and, 'everyone is available for the right price,' which is what Ricco has been saying since early June. But what do you do when that price is actually met?
In that situation, if the deal is legit and can actually improve the Mets, do they have the guts to pull the trigger and deal away their best homegrown pitcher since Doc Gooden?
"It seems like they can't do anything right these days, which is all the more reason why the can't afford to get this wrong," a rival official stated.
This statement that could not be more true.
Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Contact) is lead writer of MetsBlog.com, which he created in 2003. He also hosts the MetsBlog Podcast, which you can subscribe to here. His new book, The New York Mets Fans' Bucket List, details 44 things every Mets fan should experience during their lifetime. To check it out, click here!