Colorado Rockies at New York Mets
Moneyline: COL+170/NYM -195
Over/Under: 7.5
Series: COL +180/NYM -220
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY
Probable pitchers: Antonio Senzatela (4-4, 5.33 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (3-5, 3.49 ERA)
The Mets have been getting a heavy dosage of the National League West lately and that will continue this weekend with the Rockies in town for a three-game set.
Coming off a series victory over the San Francisco Giants, New York is looking to keep it rolling this evening behind deGrom, who will also be looking to keep up his own personal momentum.
After an uncharacteristically troublesome April that saw the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner post a 6.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, deGrom enjoyed a very nice May (aside from one hiccup in Miami). For the month, he notched a 2.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while holding his opponents to two runs or fewer in five of six starts.
June is off to a promising start after the righty yielded only one run in 6.2 effective innings in Arizona his last time out. DeGrom draws one of the most dangerous lineups in the league for tonight's assignment, but it's one he's handled well in the past.
For instance, Colorado's potent left side of the infield consisting of Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story has combined to hit only .111 (3-for-27) in their at-bats against deGrom. Even if dynamic leadoff man Charlie Blackmon (calf) returns from injury Friday, he's managed only a .105 mark.
DeGrom is taking on the Rockies for the seventh time in his career and Mets fans surely hope he churns out something in line with the first six. After all, he's 4-0 to go with a shiny 1.02 ERA and 0.74 WHIP -- that's actually the lowest ERA and WHIP he's recorded against any opponent whom he's faced more than once.
Like his counterpart in this one, Senzatela will also be vying to sustain a nice bit of recent work. Despite possessing an undesirable 5.33 ERA and 1.59 WHIP on the year, the third-year right-hander has exhibited signs of turning it around, having allowed three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
Even so, it'll be rocky sledding (no pun intended) more times than not for Senzatela as long as he maintains a brutal strikeout-to-walk ratio. In his 54 innings this year, Senzatela has registered only 33 K's, yet he's also issued 23 walks. That's not going to get it done consistently at this level.
How I Would Bet This Game
Unsurprisingly, deGrom is the sizable favorite here at home. With him trending back up for awhile now, he's a solid bet, albeit at unfriendly -195 odds. Thus, I'd advise taking the Mets on the runline (meaning they have to win by more than one run), which even carries positive odds at +110. The over/under, meanwhile, is hard to decipher.
Should You Bet The Series?
Even if you think the Mets can claim two of three from Colorado, putting money on it isn't the smartest proposition considering you have to lay -220 juice. And it's not like they're playing some bottom-feeder; the Rockies actually enter this series with the better record. While the Rox are a good value bet for the series, it's also not recommended going against a Mets club that may be gaining some steam again.
