Mets vs. Phillies 2024 NLDS Preview and Prediction

As the Mets entered their Wild Card Series against the Brewers, they were coming off one of the wildest runs in the history of the franchise, which culminated with perhaps the greatest regular season win in the history of the franchise.

That win, of course, was their Game 161 triumph over the Braves on Monday as they exorcised their demons in Atlanta and punched their ticket to the playoffs.

Now, as they enter the NLDS against the Phillies in Philadelphia, the Mets are coming off one of their most miraculous postseason wins ever -- right up there with Game 6 of the 1986 NLCS in Houston and Game 6 of the 1986 World Series at Shea Stadium.

Trailing by two runs in the ninth and facing elimination on Thursday night, the Mets erupted, with the exclamation point provided by Pete Alonso, who rocketed a 3-1 offering from Devin Williams over the wall in right-center for a three-run homer that turned things upside down.

Alonso's blast ignited jubilant hysteria at the Citi Field watch party, sent Mets fans in bars all over the city into a frenzy, and had everyone watching at home going similarly nuts.

After the game, Carlos Mendoza was as jubilant as his players in another champagne-and-beer soaked clubhouse.

So this is how the Mets will enter the NLDS.

Let's not forget, though, that there's a reason this team had the best record in baseball from June through the end of the regular season. They are formidable, they are together, and they are resilient.

What will that mean as they face the Phillies in the first playoff series ever between the two teams?

What the Mets have going for them

I wrote before the Mets-Brewers series that there was an intangible about the Mets that could set them apart. That turned out to be the case.

New York is going to have to turn it up a notch against a Phillies team that is absolutely loaded, but they should be set up well to meet that challenge.

Friday will be the Mets' first day off since the second rainout in Atlanta last Thursday, ending a stretch of five games in four days that included three playoff games and was unprecedented in major league history. Really, it had literally never happened before.

So while the Mets entered Game 1 of the Wild Card Series without Edwin Diaz, who had thrown 2.0 innings in Game 161, and didn't have him at full strength in a Game 2 loss against the Brewers where he wasn't used (a similarly exhausted Phil Maton was, and it didn't end well), the closer should be well rested for the NLDS after helping pave the way for the Mets' Game 3 comeback with 1.2 gutsy innings.

Similarly, a starting rotation that was on fumes entering the Milwaukee series will have a chance to reset and have everyone but David Peterson (who closed Game 3 in Milwaukee) on regular or extra rest.

Meanwhile, the rotation will be getting a jolt with the return of Kodai Senga, who is starting Game 1 in Philadelphia.

It also seems that Francisco Lindor, who has been playing through a back injury, is at the very least not too compromised. He has looked strong at the plate and smooth in the field.

A huge X-factor for New York could be Pete Alonso, who was mired in a terrible slump before his homer on Thursday changed everything. Now unburdened by what has been, perhaps Alonso enters this series rejuvenated and relaxed.

What the Phillies have going for them

It can be argued that the Phillies are better than the Dodgers team that finished three wins better than them and snagged the top seed in the National League.

And if you believe the Phillies are better than the Dodgers (as I do), then that makes them the best team in baseball -- because no team in the American League is as well-rounded as Philadelphia.

The Phillies' biggest strength is their starting pitching, led by likely Cy Young runner-up Zack Wheeler and also including Ranger Suarez, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez.

Nola was iffy in September, with a 4.91 ERA -- including an outing where the Mets touched him up for six runs in 4.1 innings -- but he has serious big game pedigree.

The Phils also have a powerful offensive attack, led by Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto, and a cauldron of a ballpark that is perhaps the loudest and most intimidating in the league.

Philadelphia's bullpen was middle of the pack during the regular season (their 3.94 ERA in the regular season was similar to the Mets' 4.04), and is not in the same category as what the Brewers sent out there against the Mets.

But closer Carlos Estevez and late-inning arms Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering are nothing to sneeze at.

The Mets will win the series if...

The Mets' bullpen has some serious pieces at the back end, including Diaz, Ryne Stanek, Maton, and Jose Butto (who needs a proper amount of rest). In order for them to be at their best, though, the Mets are going to have to continue to get length from their starting pitchers.

As is noted above, the starting rotation should be in strong shape entering the NLDS, with Friday's day off helping in a big way.

The Mets are also going to need more from their offense, which was dormant for most of the last two games against the Brewers. Perhaps some of that can be chalked up to exhaustion.

As discussed earlier, Alonso breaking out would be enormous, since it would restore the middle of the Mets' batting order and make it much more difficult to get through it. If Alonso catches fire, it should bring the Mets to even greater heights.

The Phillies will win the series if...

Unless the Mets win this series in three or four games, they're almost certainly going to have to face Wheeler twice (in Game 1 and Game 5). And if Wheeler is untouchable, the Phillies will be a very tough out.

The Phillies' power bats also pose a problem, with Philadelphia having belted 198 homers during the regular season -- seventh in the majors and right behind the Mets, who smacked 207. If the Mets aren't able to keep them in check, things could get difficult.

The Mets are also going to have to do a better job against Sanchez, who held them to three runs in 12.0 innings in two Phillies wins in September.

Prediction

Mets in five

I don't think the Mets' ride ends here.

Beating the Phillies will not be easy, and as has been the case all season, the Mets will take it down to the wire and finish it the hard way.

But when the dust settles, it will be the Mets who are heading to the NLCS.