I’m not in the business of predicting the future, but can tell you this: The Mets’ strong expectation today is that Pete Alonso will be on the team in 2024.
Over the past few weeks, as Alonso trade rumors have congealed into a perception of near inevitability, the reaction among Mets executives can be best summarized by two words: Surprised and confused.
While not ruling out the chance of the proverbial being “blown away” by an offer this winter, the team does not plan to actively shop Alonso.
The reason is straightforward: The Mets are serious about fielding a competitive roster next season, and see Alonso as a necessary part of that. Their current inclination is to keep him until free agency, then negotiate with him as they did with Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo (who they retained) and Jacob deGrom (who they did not).
Will they sign him long-term? That’s a question for this time next year.
As owner Steve Cohen said earlier this month, “We love Pete as a Met. He's an integral part of the Mets. He's still with us for another year. We hope we work things out.”
Where, then, are all these rumors and expectations about a trade coming from?
It is accurate that the Mets discussed Alonso with other teams prior to the trade deadline, but the team is adamant in insisting that talks never became serious.
When GM Billy Eppler touched base with his counterparts, he listed Alonso among the 11 or 12 players in whom the Mets were receiving the most interest. But his message was clear: The asking price would be extremely high, and was going to hurt.
The Athletic recently named the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs as two clubs that expressed interest in Alonso. Other league sources point to those N.L. Central rivals as teams to watch if the Mets do pivot and make Alonso available this offseason.
I learned long ago not to speak in absolutes in this business, and to never say never. Maybe the Mets will reconsider their position by winter. Maybe a new president of baseball operations will convince Eppler and Cohen to shop Alonso. Maybe the Cubs will offer their four top prospects.
If the Mets do change course, this past month of rumors will have helped them soften the ground for an Alonso trade, at least from a public relations standpoint. Fans won’t be stunned. But as far as I can tell, that hasn’t been the intention. In fact, Mets officials feel bad for Alonso that he has had to read and hear trade rumors.
As of today, though? It’s hard to find anyone in the Citi Field offices who believes that Alonso will be elsewhere in 2024.