Mets closer Edwin Diaz is good, whether you like it or not

That Diaz has been very good in 2020 is a fact, not an opinion

9/10/2020, 5:40 PM
Mets RHP Edwin Diaz / SNY treated image
Mets RHP Edwin Diaz / SNY treated image

If you want to engage with people on Twitter today, all you have to do is tweet that Mets closer Edwin Diaz has been good this season. It's a fact, not an opinion, but it's something that lights a fire under Mets fans -- some of whom are seemingly refusing to acknowledge the stats that are right in front of them.

This is not to minimize the feelings of Mets fans who still turn to Tums or alcohol when Diaz enters a game. It's understandable to be worried when Diaz is still relatively fresh off the wreckage that was his 2019 season. And it's understandable to not fully trust a closer who has had some bad moments this season.

But when looking at Diaz's 2020 season -- whether your eyes are on his traditional stats, his advanced stats, or simply the stuff that's coming out of his hand -- it's impossible to deny this fact: Edwin Diaz has been damn good, whether you like it or not.

Here is a sampling of his traditional stats:

1.89 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 39 strikeouts (18.47 per 9) in 19 innings. Two home runs allowed (0.95 per 9), three saves, four blown saves/leads (more on those below)

Here is a sampling of his advanced stats, via Baseball Savant:

2.34 FIP (2.10 xFIP), 90.5 LOB (left on base) percentage, Whiff percentage in the 100th percentile, strikeout percentage in the 100th percentile, xSLG in the 98th percentile, fastball velocity in the 98th percentile, xERA in the 97th percentile, xBA in the 97th percentile, xwOBA in the 96th percentile, exit velocity in the 94th percentile.

Want to talk about the leads Diaz has blown this year? Sure...

The first one came against the Atlanta Braves, when Diaz was simply beat on a good pitch that was off the plate away when Marcell Ozuna hit a game-tying homer. It happens.

The others were messes Diaz came into and did not escape. Is he to blame for not executing? Yep. But to kill him for those is quite nitpicky when examining the full body of work he's put together in 2020.

It should also be noted that in one of his "blown saves" (a stat that should be shot into the sun) Diaz inherited a bases loaded situation, walked the first batter he faced and then struck out the final four batters to end the game and earn the save.

Let's take a game-by-game look at Diaz's 2020, including his perceived "blowups"...

  • He has given up more than two hits in an appearance one time
  • He has walked more than two batters in an appearance zero times
  • He has stranded every runner on base in 16 of his 19 appearances
  • He has given up one home run since July 25
Edwin Diaz celebrates a win with Robinson Chirinos / USA Today
Edwin Diaz celebrates a win with Robinson Chirinos / USA Today

Is Diaz perfect? Nope. No closer or late-inning reliever is ever perfect.

Does Diaz still have bouts with wildness and does he need to clean that up? Yep.

But Diaz in 2020 has been incredibly good overall, and it's impossible to argue otherwise.

Diaz's success is also something that many should've seen coming (if you believed he would again harness his slider, which he has) due to how fluky his 2019 was.

Among other signs pointing to a rebound, Diaz's xFIP in 2019 was 3.07, roughly two and a half runs lower than his ERA.

Now that Diaz has turned back into a pretty nasty reliever whose traditional stats and advanced stats match his electric stuff, why is it so hard for some Mets fans to admit that he's good?

Perhaps part of it has to do with what happened in 2019, which -- again -- is understandable. But it's possible to admit a pitcher has been good while also being a bit worried when that pitcher enters a game.

It also seems that some Mets fans are refusing to separate Diaz from the trade that brought him to Queens.

Should the Mets have included Jarred Kelenic in that deal while taking on Robinson Cano? Nope. It was indefensible then and remains indefensible now. But that is not Diaz's fault, nor does it make what he's doing for the Mets less impactful.

Diaz is also 26 years old, under control through the 2022 season, and could be a huge part of the Mets' near future. He's also good, whether you're ready to admit it or not.

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