Mets vs. Braves: 5 things to watch and series predictions | July 25-28

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Braves play a four-game series at Citi Field starting on Thursday night...

Preview

Kodai Senga's return

After missing the first four months of the season due to a shoulder injury and multiple setbacks, Senga is back.

The right-hander will take the mound for his season debut on Friday after making four rehab starts -- getting his pitch count up to 79 in his last one.

Senga, who was second in Rookie of the Year voting and seventh in Cy Young award voting in 2023, should provide a jolt for a team in need of a top of the rotation arm to help with their playoff push.

Coming off his injury, it will be interesting to see how Senga's stuff looks his first time out.

Unfortunately for the Mets, the return of Senga comes on the heels of Christian Scott's injury -- meaning New York will be filling a hole left by Scott, not adding to a strength. Additionally, their desire to go to a six-man rotation despite Scott's injury could mean the return of Tylor Megill in short order.

The Braves are decimated by injury

Atlanta is in the midst of a down (for them) season, currently holding the top Wild Card spot as the Phillies run away with the NL East.

And a lot of the Braves' struggles can be traced back to who they don't have.

Spencer Strider (Tommy John surgery) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (torn ACL) were both lost for the season early on, robbing Atlanta of its best pitcher and hitter.

More recently, Max Fried landed on the IL due to nerve inflammation and Ozzie Albies fractured his wrist -- an injury that is expected to keep him out for roughly eight weeks.

In the midst of all this, Matt Olson is having a poor season at the plate for a Braves team that is near the bottom of the NL in runs scored.

Jeff McNeil's power eruption

McNeil is starting to look more like himself. And as he's gotten comfortable at the plate, he's also been in the midst of a power barrage.

He has hit four home runs since the Mets returned from the All-Star break, including a two-homer game against the Marlins last week in Miami.

In 20 games in July, McNeil's OPS is over .900.

McNeil becoming a plus at the plate again would be a huge boost for a Mets team that has been mixing and matching in the outfield with Starling Marte injured.

If McNeil continues to perform, New York could theoretically slot him in the outfield regularly while using Jose Iglesias at second base until Marte returns -- at which point McNeil could shift back to second.

The Wild Card race is getting ... wild

With the Mets right in the middle of a playoff chase, most of the focus has been on them possibly nabbing either the second or third Wild Card spot.

That's because, until recently, the thought had been that Atlanta would cruise to the playoffs via the top Wild Card spot.

However, New York is now within striking distance of Atlanta, just 1.5 games back.

The team that nabs the top Wild Card spot in each league hosts all three games of the Wild Card series, while the No. 2 and No. 3 Wild Card teams play all of their first-round playoff games on the road.

Atlanta's rotation has been elite

The Braves are still in playoff position due in large part to a starting rotation that has been tremendous.

During this series, the Mets will face the Braves' two best starters -- the resurgent Chris Sale and the out-of-nowhere Reynaldo Lopez -- along with Charlie Morton (who has a tendency to give the Mets fits) and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach.

Sale, who had a 4.30 ERA last season for the Red Sox, has a 2.70 ERA (2.21 FIP) and 0.95 WHIP to go along with a strikeout rate of 11.5 per nine this season.

Lopez, who entered the season with a 4.32 career ERA in eight seasons where he was a reliever more often than a starter, is leading the NL with a 2.12 ERA.

Meanwhile, Morton has a 3.92 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Schwellenbach has been up and down lately -- wrapping three subpar starts around two stellar ones where he allowed just two runs combined.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Francisco Alvarez.

Alvarez likes the bright lights, as evidenced by his eruption against the Yankees at Citi Field last month, making him the pick for a big performance during this weekend series at Citi.

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Luis Severino.

Severino's stuff was electric in his first start after the All-Star break.

Which Braves player will be a thorn in Mets' side?

Nacho Alvarez.

Alvarez, who was called up to replace Albies, made his big league debut earlier this week.

He isn't a big power guy, but got on base at an elite clip in the minors.