Deep Dive on Blade Tidwell, who has stuff and swagger of front-line starter

Mets pitching prospect Blade Tidwell has pitched for both High-A and Double-A this season as the No. 52 overall pick in the 2022 draft looks to make his MLB debut sooner rather than later.

Here's a deep dive on the 22-year-old...

Background 

Blade Tidwell grew up in a small town in Loretto, Tennessee that has a population of only 1,805 as of 2023. Despite it being that small of a town, he was high school teammates with current Miami Marlins pitcher Ryan Weathers, who is the son of former Mets reliever David Weathers. In the 2020 recruiting class Tidwell was ranked as the 71st best high school player in the nation by Perfect Game and the third best in the state of Tennessee.

He committed to the University of Tennessee as a hard thrower (he touched 97 mph in high school) who did not really know how to pitch. In the SEC, 97 mph will play, but these are the top of the top when it comes to college hitters. He posted a solid season with the Volunteers in 2021 posting a 10-3 record and a 3.74 ERA. However, he only struck out 8.2 batters-per-nine and part of that was at times his fastball would get flat.

It was not until he joined collegiate Team USA where he started to dip into the advanced data working with Kevin O’Sullivan, who was the pitching coach for Team USA and the University of Florida. Tidwell gained an understanding of horizontal and vertical break, spin rate, spin efficiency and how these things could benefit him when he is on the mound. In his time with Team USA he went from someone who would get 13-15 inches of vertical break on his fastball to someone who would be in the 17-21 inch range, which is a plus number.

Tidwell entered the spring of 2022 as one of the top pitching prospects for the 2022 MLB Draft, and there was a thought that he could be a top 10-15 pick. He was someone that was frequently tied to the Mets early in the spring as an option at pick No. 11 (would end up being Kevin Parada) or No. 14 (would end up being Jett Williams). He dealt with some shoulder tendinitis that caused him to miss a couple of months and he fell in the draft. The Mets were opportunistic and selected him in the second round at No. 52 overall, later signing him for an above-slot $1.85 million.

He has had a successful first professional season that still will have another appearance in there as Double-A Binghamton will take on Erie for the Eastern League Championship starting on Sunday. Across 25 starts between High-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton he posted a 3.57 ERA in 116 innings allowing 87 hits, 63 walks while striking out a whopping 153 (11.9 strikeouts-per-nine).

Scouting Report

Tidwell has a fastball that will sit 94-95 with ride to it and will touch 98 mph on occasion. His best secondary offering is his mid-80’s sweeping slider that scouts consider a plus offering. He also has a curveball to have both a horizontal and a vertical breaking ball as well as a change-up that he has worked hard in the second half to improve. Both of these pitches project as average offerings at this time.

When Tidwell throws strikes, he is tough to face. His hard-hit and barrel rates are low. He is a very confident pitcher with swagger on the mound. His control improved some as the year went on, but he still had a higher than preferred 4.9 walks-per-nine rate this year. Sometimes you can tell if he has it or not on a given day in the first inning. He has a relatively clean delivery that shouldn’t be a deterrent to throwing strikes, but he just needs to stay consistent with his release point and that should allow him to throw strikes more consistently.

Future

Tidwell is my No. 1 pitching prospect, and No. 9 overall in the system due to him having the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Mets system right now. I am often asked about the Mets having a potential frontline starter or potential top 100 prospect internally and the answer is Tidwell for me. He possesses the big stuff and ability to overwhelm a lineup when he is on that nobody else in the system has and the front-line starter swagger to go along with it.

This potential does not come without risk, as he absolutely must improve his control to reach his ceiling. If he is not able to make strides there, he could end up becoming a late inning reliever that focuses on just the plus fastball and slider in short spurts. He has been very receptive to the new systems in place by Eric Jagers and the Mets organization believes he is someone who will be a beneficiary of spending some time in the pitching lab to break down the biomechanics of his delivery and make him as efficient as possible. He has said that he has become a bit of an analytics nut between his starts, then he wants nothing to do with the numbers during his starts. He may start 2024 with Double-A Binghamton due to a numbers game, but he is someone that with a good first half of 2024 will enter the conversation of potentially making his big-league debut sometime next year. Quickly the Mets are getting in a spot where their starting pitching depth is going to be largely based on homegrown talent, with Tidwell being the top of the chain for me.