9 bold NBA predictions for the 2022-23 season, including Knicks and Nets

The Knicks and Nets kick off the regular season on Wednesday, so we put together some bold predictions about the 2022-23 NBA campaign....

Tom Thibodeau is the Knicks' head coach for the entire season, and begins 2023-24 as the head coach

There was uncertainty around Thibodeau’s job status during the 2021-22 season. The team was underperforming. There were some signs of discord between the coaching staff and the front office. But through the turbulence, team president Leon Rose stuck by Thibodeau. The Knicks finished the season winning nine of their last 14 games behind strong play from their homegrown players.

Still, they won just 37 games. The season was a disappointment when compared to New York’s playoff run in 2020-21. So the Knicks and Thibodeau need to show tangible results early on this season. If they stumble through the first two months of the season, I think it could lead to some organizational overhaul.

But if you’re asking me to predict how things will go, I think New York will have a solid record early on in the season and build enough momentum to get through any early-season losing skids. Maybe I’m overly influenced by what we’ve seen and heard about Jalen Brunson in training camp/preseason? But I think Brunson's impact on and off the court will be significant. I think he will help keep the ball moving on offense and I think he’ll help his teammates weather any rough stretches in the regular season. 

I think Brunson’s presence will lead to a few more wins than last season. More importantly, it will shift the short-term trajectory of the franchise. The Knicks will be seen as headed in the right direction and Thibodeau’s job status will be secure heading into next year.

Kyrie Irving will play well, earn a multi-year deal in 2023 offseason

Irving has played 103 regular season games for the Nets over the past three seasons. He’s been out due to injury, personal reasons and vaccination status. Irving’s availability was obviously a concern among teams interested in trading for him in the 2022 offseason. If a contending team knew it could count on Irving over the course of the regular season and playoffs, that club would have met Brooklyn’s asking price and traded for Kyrie. That didn’t happen. 

People around Irving were surprised at how the market valued him. Irving’s teammates say he’s entered the season with a noticeably different approach. I think this all ends up with Irving playing well -- and often -- for the Nets this season. He’ll restore his value league-wide enough to the point where he commands a significant multi-year deal this summer. Is it from the Nets or another team? I’ve covered the league long enough to shy away from making that prediction.

Jalen Brunson meets -- and exceeds -- fan/media expectations

Like I said above, I may be a little caught up in everything we’ve heard and seen from Brunson over the past few weeks. But his approach to the game, skill-set and age all lead me to believe he will thrive in New York. As one evaluator from an opposing team said, “He’s a winner, he’ll make everyone better. I just don’t think they’re good enough right now (to contend).” Brunson will give the Knicks the kind of steadying presence on and off the court that’s often been missing from MSG. He’ll produce enough to make people who said New York paid him too much in the summer of 2022 look foolish. 

Will he help the Knicks turn in to a contender? As the executive above said, that depends on which players the Knicks can add moving forward. But I feel good about predicting Brunson’s impact will exceed the value of his contract.

Other Predictions

4. Julius Randle’s assist-to-turnover ratio was 1.5 last season. It will improve this season. I think his minutes per game will slightly decrease from the 36.4 he’s averaged over the past few years.

5. New York will move one of the players it’s drafted in the Leon Rose era at some point in the league calendar

6. Knicks win 39 games

7. Nets win 49 games

8. If he remains healthy, Bol Bol will be a candidate for Most Improved Player in Orlando. Several people around the league said he had a tremendous offseason. I think that translates to the court this season if he’s healthy.

9. Tobias Harris impacts the East: Somewhat under the radar, Harris put up an impressive statistical profile in Philly last season. He was one of eight players to have a usage of at least 20 percent, average 3.5 assists or more and have a turnover percentage fewer than 10 percent.

He was one of four veterans (players in at least their 10th season) to rank in the 80th percentile or higher in pressuring a defense, offensive value added, defending high-usage players and positional versatility on defense, per bball-index.com. 

The only player to exceed Harris’ points, rebounds and assists per game while matching or exceeding his shooting percentages from the field and free-throw line? Kevin Durant.

Harris’ overall numbers were down as Philadelphia played around Joel Embiid and James Harden. The Sixers didn’t feature Harris in their offense often.

There were reports that Philadelphia was trying to move Harris in the offseason. But he remains on the roster. Other teams certainly know about Harris’ statistical profile last season. And they know what he brings to an organization off the court. So I think Harris will have a big impact on the Atlantic Division -- whether it’s as a Sixer or with another team following a trade from Philly.