Knicks Mailbag: What's the short-and long-term plan for Mitchell Robinson?

SNY's Ian Begley will be responding to Knicks questions from readers. Here's the latest...

35 games played for Mitchell Robinson this year. Are you taking the OVER or UNDER? - @The__Cooler

A great question, Cooler. Before we get to Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks-Thunder matchup on Friday night is one of the best games of the regular season thus far. Timely test for a Knicks team that has played well amid a softer stretch of the schedule.

The Thunder and Knicks have won a combined 22 straight games coming into Friday’s matchup. New York’s defense on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder approach against Karl-Anthony Towns will be fun to watch.

Now, back to Robinson. Let’s start here with the Knicks center: as of Wednesday, he was not yet cleared to run at full speed. That’s the next significant step for Robinson in his rehab from offseason foot surgery.

Until he clears that hurdle, it’s difficult to say with any certainty when Robinson will be back on the court. But it’s fair to say that he’s not close to a return. If he were close to a return, he’d already be taking contact in a scrimmage setting.

He won’t be cleared for practice before he can get through full speed sprints. Tom Thibodeau believes Robinson will get cleared some time this month, which is the most definitive timetable the Knicks have offered on Robinson. For what it’s worth, multiple people who have seen Robinson over the past few weeks say he’s looking good physically and has been making positive progress in his rehab.

All along, the club has taken a conservative approach with their center. He’s already experienced a significant foot injury in his opposite foot.

There is always a concern when a seven-footer has had surgeries on both feet. So it makes sense for the Knicks to be cautious in their approach with Robinson.

 With all that said, I would probably take the under on the Cooler’s 35-game proposition. Even if Robinson returns in mid-January, I don’t think he will play in all of the Knicks’ remaining regular season games. So I think he’d end up with fewer than 35 regular season games played. Obviously, the goal is for Robinson to be healthy in the postseason.

In a perfect world for the Knicks, Robinson comes back healthy and plays his way into shape ahead of the playoffs. I’m sure the Knicks would prefer to have a healthy Robinson at backup center than any alternative. Because the alternative involves them trading assets for another center. Any Knicks trade at the moment is complicated by the new CBA rules. They cannot take back more salary than they send out. So the clearest path for New York is to have Robinson back on the floor.

Several teams have been inquiring about Robinson’s health. So that tells you that teams would have interest in trading for Robinson if they knew he was going to be healthy. When healthy, Robinson is one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA. The 26-year-old is under contract through next season. So it makes sense that he would have trade strong trade value if healthy.

But the three teams I’ve talked to recently didn’t have clarity on Robinson’s health.

So it seems like the Knicks – and any team with interest in trading for Robinson – will have to wait and see how his rehab plays out before making any concrete decisions about his future.

*** some X users asked me about a phrase I used about Robinson that was isolated in a post by the Let’s Talk Knicks account. I did say on Wednesday night that Robinson was not close to a return. But I said it within the context of the latest update from Thibodeau. Thibodeau said that Robinson was not yet running full speed. So, in my read, he is not close to returning. The post from Let’s Talk Knicks was accurate. But I think it would have been helpful to include the context of the rest of the conversation.

MORE MITCH:

Do the Knicks really view Mrob as part of their long term plan/team? - @DFestinger18575

Is there any chance that Mitchell Robinson will be traded for a more reliable backup center? - @RufHouza

I would be lying if I said I knew exactly how each decision-maker with the Knicks feels about Robinson. If I was answering this question before the season, I’d lean more toward Robinson being moved at some point.

But early on in the season, people in touch with the Knicks came away with the impression that they viewed Robinson as an important part of this year’s team. At the time, it was clear that the Knicks needed a strong defensive presence around the rim.

I don’t think much has changed on that front. But I also don’t have a strong read on Robinson’s health. My best guess is similar to what I wrote above: in a perfect world for the Knicks, Robinson comes back and plays at a high level behind Towns (and, at times, alongside Towns). That’s the clearest path forward for this team. But we’re not there yet. If the Knicks at some point decide that they can’t rely on Robinson coming back, they will probably be forced to replace him via trade.

A FEW QUICK HITTERS:

Who do the Knicks likely go after the deadline? Does Mitchell Robinson factor into this decision making in terms of health and salary? - @KnicksCast

Happy New Year Ian! Any chance Knicks go after Steven Adams or Robert Williams at the deadline? Any insight into any other players Knicks may have their eyes on? As always, great work! - @Kameel888

Happy New Year Ian! Any trade rumors going around surrounding the Knicks or what they may have potentially planned? And any of your own ideas of what they’ll do before the deadline? - @EliazGonza18836

I hit on some of the Robinson elements in these questions. I think their interest in a center like Adams or Williams depends on Robinson’s health.

Based on the Knicks’ approach in the offseason, I’d assume they would have interest in Jonas Valančiūnas, Goga Bitadze, and Nick Richards if they are unsure of Robinson’s health. All of those centers were on New York’s radar in the offseason.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on the Pistons. In New York’s discussions with Detroit on Julius Randle, the club expressed interest in both Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren. I don’t think Detroit is eager to trade either player. But at the time, some with the Knicks viewed Duren and/or Stewart as strong fits for the roster in a potential Randle trade. Should be noted that friend of the show James Edwards III also mentioned Stewart in a recent article for The Athletic about the Knicks.

(As an aside, in our last mailbag, I made a mistake in mentioning DeAndre Ayton as a potential trade target. I apologize for the error. I mentioned Ayton based on the Knicks’ past interest/information gathering on Ayton. But the Knicks do not have a realistic path to trade for Ayton at the moment. That was a lazy mistake on my part).

What are the Knicks' plans here on Precious… he’s on a one year deal, and with the Knicks being this close to the second apron do we really expect that he re-signs next year? This kind of indicates trade but… I don’t want to lose Precious! Give me some insights. - @KnickedupFan

A great question on Precious. The only thing that I know definitively here is that Precious waiving his no-trade clause was an important element in the negotiations between Achiuwa and New York this summer. I didn’t take that as an indication that the Knicks were committed to moving Precious at the 2025 deadline. I still don’t think that’s the case.

I read it as the Knicks seeking flexibility to pursue trades involving Achiuwa if those moves become necessary. With regard to the possibility of re-signing Achiuwa, the Knicks will be able to exceed the second apron to bring Achiuwa back in the offseason. Doing so will be more expensive for owner James Dolan.

But I think it’s inevitable that this Knicks team will eventually exceed the second apron. So there’s no need to trade an important player like Achiuwa purely for financial reasons.