The Nets have Kevin Durant back. But they also have plenty of questions heading into the final 18 games of the regular season.
The big one: will they make the playoffs?
Even asking that question about a team with Durant and Kyrie Irving sounds ridiculous. But it has to be part of the conversation around the Nets at the moment.
They are five games out of sixth place in the Eastern Conference. If they finish in seventh or eighth place, the Nets will have to win one of two games in the NBA Play-In Tournament to clinch a playoff berth.
Logic tells you that the Nets will have little trouble advancing from the Play-In Tournament.
But if the club finishes in 7th place, Brooklyn will host the 8th seed in the first game of the Play-In Tournament. Unless New York City changes its current private sector vaccine mandate, the Nets would play that game without Irving, who is unvaccinated.
If the Nets lost that game against the eighth seed, they would host a win-or-go-home game at Barclays Center. Again, if current private sector vaccine mandates remain in place, Irving wouldn’t be able to play in that game.
Also worth noting: The Toronto Raptors are currently in seventh place. If the season ended today, the Nets would travel to Toronto for their first Play-In game. Irving, under current COVID guidelines, is not allowed to play in Toronto.
(A quick aside: According to a source, the prospect of playing the Raptors in the postseason was one of the reasons James Harden was concerned about Irving’s vaccine status earlier in the season. Harden, as you know, forced a trade from Brooklyn to the Philadelphia 76ers prior to the deadline).
Of course, the season doesn’t end today. Brooklyn’s next three games are on the road and Irving will be eligible for all of them.
After that trip, Irving will be eligible for four of the Nets’ final 15 games.
All of this assumes that Mayor Eric Adams keeps the current vaccine mandate for private companies in place, something he’s publicly committed to doing.
Nets GM Sean Marks said in an interview with YES Network on Thursday that the club was hopeful to find out more about the mandates in the next 24-to-48 hours, but he appeared to be referring to the KeyToNYC mandate. The private sector mandate would remain a hurdle for Irving even if the KeyToNYC mandate is lifted. As recently as mid-February, some members of the organization had privately expressed optimism that Irving would be able to play home games this season. But nothing that Adams has said suggests that is imminent.
Even without Irving, the Nets should be able to at least finish in the top half of the Play-In Tournament. They have Durant back at full health. And he looked solid on Thursday night, scoring 31 points on 10-for-21 shooting. Durant and the Nets were cautious with his rehab and it paid off. The two-time NBA Finals MVP was aggressive against the Miami Heat; he didn’t appear rusty or hesitant at all. The Nets will obviously need Durant at his best for the rest of the way to have a chance to win the Eastern Conference this season.
But when will they have Ben Simmons?
Marks said in an interview with the YES Network that the club hoped Simmons could ramp up his workouts by the end of next week. Traditionally, Brooklyn wants injured players to complete several high-intensity workouts before they are cleared to play. If the club follows this process with Simmons, it seems as if he’s unlikely to play before March 15. The Nets are on the road against Orlando on that date.
In this hypothetical timeline, Simmons would resume workouts in a game setting late next week and then complete three straight high-intensity workouts before being cleared. But that’s the best-case scenario for Simmons, who has been bothered by a back ailment during his rehab.
Based on Marks’ timeline, it seems that Simmons will likely miss the Nets’ game at Philadelphia on March 10 and their game against the Knicks on March 13.
If he made his Nets debut on March 15, Simmons would have just four games with Irving and Durant before the Play-In Tournament or playoffs. For a player who hasn’t played a game in nearly nine months, that’s not ideal.
But a healthy Simmons can certainly help Brooklyn on defense, an area where the club struggled on Thursday against Miami.
Brooklyn announced on Thursday that guard Joe Harris will have season-ending surgery on his ankle. This is brutal news for the player and franchise. Harris is the only player still with the organization from the pre-Durant era. And he was one of the driving forces of the Nets’ success prior to Durant and Irving’s arrival.
Most importantly for the current team, Harris gave the Nets strong perimeter shooting. Seth Curry should offset Harris’ absence to a degree. But you can never have enough shooting.
It’s worth noting that Brooklyn spoke to several teams prior to the deadline who had interest in trading for Harris. But, as SNY noted, the uncertainty around Harris’ ankle impacted what teams who valued Harris were willing to give up for him.
If the Nets look to upgrade the roster in the offseason, they likely already have a good idea of which teams are high on Harris. They’ll also have the first-round picks they received from Philly in the Harden deal and Nic Claxton as potential trade assets.
But that’s a subject for July. At the moment, a healthy Durant gives the Nets a strong chance to compete in the Eastern Conference. But even with Durant back, the club has plenty of questions to answer in the final 18 games of the season.
