The Mets will get a team's top 10 prospect if they deal Zack Wheeler. They'll get two guys from that team's Top 15-20 if they want multiple players. However, other than the trade for Wheeler, I expect the Mets will be hard pressed to make deals that will satisfy most fans.

As far as Jeurys Familia, who outranked Brad Hand on MLBTradeRumors.com's recent list of the Top 50 Trade Candidates, there were a few things that weren't working in the Mets' favor.

Unfortunately for them, Familia is earning $8 million this season and will be a free agent after the season. On the other hand (pun intended), Hand is earning $3.5 million this season and isn't a free agent until 2021.

"In general, I don't see teams sacrificing top talent for two-plus months (of a big league player)," an American League front office official recently told The Atheltic's Ken Rosenthal.

This is the same thing I have heard from multiple people in baseball, all of whom teams are clinging to their top prospects in an unprecedented way.

Based on what transpired last winter, if Hand were eligible to be a free agent this winter, he'd likely be offered three- and four-year deals worth roughly $10-12 million each season. Instead, the Indians now have him on what is essentially a three-year, $23 million contract, which is a steal in this current climate for relievers.

As a result, the Indians sent elite prospect Francisco Mejia to San Diego. It's also worth noting that the Padres included reliever Adam Cimber, who will also be helpful to the Indians down the stretch.

The other thing working against the Mets when negotiating a deal for Familia is that there are more relief pitchers available in trade than there are teams looking to acquire someone.

Last year, 32 relief pitchers were dealt during July and August. There are 30 teams in the league and only half of them are ever considered buyers with a legit shot at making it to the postseason. The point is, relievers net very little in trade, unless it's a situation like Hand who carries with him a long-term bargain contract.

Meanwhile, despite being contacted about Familia by the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, and Giants, among others, the Mets sent their closer to the A's in a deal that was widely panned by other team executives, notable reporters, and lots of Mets fans.

The way I understand it, the Mets received close to a dozen offers for Familia from multiple teams, all of which were different in structure and none of which offered up a top prospect.

In the end, given the unpredictability of relief pitchers, and given that it's a buyer's market for bullpen help, I assume the Mets decided it made more sense to let Oakland pick up Familia's salary, which net them just two so-so prospects and bonus money for international signings.

This swap got hammered, and more than one rival front office told me the Mets got screwed. Those same critical teams told me they likely would have offered only slightly more than Oakland.

The Familia trade also looks weak when compared to the recent deal sending O's closer Zach Britton to the Yankees. In return for taking on all of Britton's remaining $6-7 million, New York parted with their No. 9 and No. 15 prospects, according to MLB.com.

Britton, like Familia, is a free agent at the end of this season. The A's and Yankees have similarly ranked farm systems. So, the difference in trade likely comes down to three important factors...

Despite saying they're open to paying a player's salary in trade to get back better prospects in the deal, the Mets either changed their minds or didn't think paying money was going to significantly impact the level talent sent back to them in the deal. Unfortunately, we'll never know the real answer to this, though that won't stop fans and media from assuming to know the truth.
Even though Mets fans appreciate everything done by Familia the past few years, the fact is that the better teams in the league do not see him as an elite closer, which is how they view Britton when healthy. This is evident by the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox focusing their efforts on acquiring Britton, while the Braves, Phillies and A's pushed for Familia. In short, top teams pay top prices for top players. It's not more complicated than that.
Familia was dealt too early. My hunch is that had the Mets waited until this week, especially with Britton now off the board, they could have gotten more for Familia even if the other team paid his salary. At the same time, what if Familia injured himself between then and now? What if one or more of the interested teams hit a losing streak and grew less inclined to make a deal?

In the end, my hunch is the Mets simply made the trade they felt made the most sense at the time with the information on their desk. They almost certainly could have received better players in return if they paid Familia's salary, but we'll never know how much better. And if William Toffey ends up developing in to their third baseman of the future, this entire debate will become a faded memory.

By the way, in regards to prospects, as old our friend Billy Harner pointed out on Twitter, 26 players from this year's All-Star teams never appeared on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list, including Jose Altuve, Corey Kluber, and Jacob deGrom. So, anyone pretending to know how Toffey or any other kid in his early 20s will turn out is at best making an educated guess.

The point is, if you're hoping to see the Mets acquire a top prospect capable of helping sooner than later, he is going to come to them in a deal for Wheeler. Otherwise, I expect similarly weak returns and a lot of criticism after potential deals for the rest of their available players, most of whom are free agents after the season.

Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Contact) is lead writer of MetsBlog.com, which he created in 2003. He also hosts the MetsBlog Podcast, which you can subscribe to here. His new book, The New York Mets Fans' Bucket List, details 44 things every Mets fan should experience during their lifetime. To check it out, click here!

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