David Stearns deserves benefit of doubt with Mets’ rotation, but top-line arms are still needed

The revamping of the Mets’ starting rotation is off to a fascinating first month or so of this offseason. It's also a bit underwhelming, to be honest, unless you see Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes as the right guys to fill the No. 2 and 3 spots behind Kodai Senga. 

But that’s where a couple of qualifiers are crucial to any overreaction. 

First, it’s still early.

Second, and more to the point, David Stearns has earned the benefit of the doubt, based on the success the Mets had with Luis Severino and Sean Manaea last season, as well as his track record for developing pitching during his time as GM in Milwaukee.

And Mets fans seem to be perfectly willing to give Stearns that type of respect, such is the trust he built during his first year on the job, at least based on public reaction so far -- but that respect surely has limits as well.

With that in mind, the Mets need to add more front-of-the-rotation presence as they head into a 2025 campaign in which winning a championship will be the expectation.

Which is another way of saying: Any secret sauce they have in their pitching lab only goes so far.

That said, I like the creativity that Stearns and the Mets are demonstrating thus far, especially in being willing to try Holmes as a starter, and staying away from six or seven-year contracts for the likes of Corbin Burnes and Max Fried is a policy that makes sense.

But does there come a point where this front office counts too much being able to maximize the ability of every pitcher it signs merely for the sake of not overspending?

Here’s how an MLB scout answered that question on Saturday:

“Funny, I was thinking about how Mets fans probably would be up in arms if Billy Eppler had signed Montas and Holmes,” the scout said. “I do think Stearns has credibility for finding value but I also think it’s important to remember one of their great advantages is Steve Cohen’s money. The cost of pitching is higher than ever, obviously, so you want to be smart about it, but you also need guys with track records to compete for championships.” 

Of course, it could be that the Mets are simply waiting to find out if they win the Juan Soto sweepstakes before deciding how much more they’re willing to spend on pitching. 

But I would suggest they still need two notable starters to fill out a rotation that right now potentially lines up as: Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Montas, Holmes, Jose Butto, and either Paul Blackburn or Tylor Megill. 

Yes, that adds up to a six-man rotation, and I think there’s a good chance the Mets go in that direction in 2025, for at least part of the season, partly because Senga needs extra rest coming off his injury-plagued year, and partly because others could have innings limits. 

All of these make it even more important to add to this rotation, and I think they’ll do that, but to what extent?

My feeling is they should start with Manaea. I believe his second-half dominance is sustainable because it was built on his seemingly seamless ability to lower his arm angle to emulate NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale’s delivery. 

Based on the three-year, $67 million deal that Severino got from the A’s, which was higher than most baseball people were projecting, it’s almost certainly going to take a four-year deal to retain Manaea, probably approaching $100 million. 

The Mets surely don’t want to extend that far since he’ll be 33 in February, but he has been very durable over the last several years, and scouts say there was nothing fluky about his second-half success. 

“The lower arm angle creates higher perceived velocity,” a scout said, “So the ball gets on hitters quicker than they process it. It’s not trickery. Hitters are always going to have trouble catching up with it at the top of the zone.”

This means that the Mets should swallow hard and spend on Manaea.

From there they should add either Walker Buehler or Nate Eovaldi.

Both can likely be had on short-term deals and though Eovaldi will be 35 in February, he has been very solid in recent years with a history of post-season success, while Buehler is coming off a shaky ’24 season back from a second Tommy John surgery but showed dominance in the postseason.

In that case, the starting six could look more like: Manaea, Senga, Peterson, Buehler/Eovaldi, Montas, and Holmes, with Blackburn, Butto, and Megill for depth, plus the potential of prospects Brandon Sproat or Blade Tidwell contributing at some point during the season. 

I think that’s a championship-caliber rotation in terms of potential dominance and depth, to be sure.

It would also leave open the possibility of moving Holmes back to the bullpen at some point. The idea of Holmes as a starter is intriguing, and his elite sinker is a strong base around which to build a starter’s arsenal, so it’s worth giving him a look. 

Yet his bullpen experience is a great fallback option, and I think he could be extremely valuable as a set-up man for Edwin Diaz, depending on what other relievers the Mets add to the mix in their bullpen. 

The bottom line, for now, is that Stearns is once again making it clear he’s not afraid to be unconventional in the pursuit of pitching. It paid off last year and maybe it will again in 2025. 

But expectations are much higher for 2025. Toward that end, the secret sauce of their pitching lab notwithstanding, the Mets still need to add a couple of name-brand starters.