Could underdog Mets actually land coveted free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto?

Never before have teams, agents, reporters and baseball fans been forced to sift through so much misinformation about Hot Stove activity. For a combination of reasons -- misfired reports, the proliferation of fake Twitter accounts without a reliable verification system, sloppy aggregation -- there is now more bad info out there than good.

We bring that up as a way to remain humble about what we don’t know regarding Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s free agency. Just in the past few days I’ve had well-connected sources saying the Mets have no chance to land the NPB superstar pitcher and sources predicting they’ll get him.

The clubs involved are just as confused as we are. Neither Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner nor Mets owner Steve Cohen has any idea if his team is getting this player. They are trying to sort through the same muck.

Having said all that, I’m ready to come up for air and report this, after days of talking with sources on all sides of this free agency: The Mets, long an underdog in this race, are actually in it. With perhaps a week to go before Yamamoto chooses a team, Cohen and company appear to have steadily improved their standing.

For months, the Mets seemed close to an afterthought here, behind the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and other historic franchises. The Yanks had solid indications that Yamamoto welcomed the spotlight of the big city, and was drawn to the biggest team in that town.

That is part of why the Mets have been playing from behind all along. Cohen is working to build the team into a powerful brand, and the bet here is that he will eventually succeed. But there is nothing the current regime can do to instantly make the Mets as accomplished, iconic, or recognized internationally as the Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, and especially Yankees. The Mets are well aware that Yamamoto might not have even heard of them while growing up.

It also doesn’t help that, while the other teams sent their top executives like Brian Cashman, Andrew Friedman and Jed Hoyer to "scout" Yamamoto last season, the Mets sent now-former GM Billy Eppler. The new front office, which took office in October, didn’t have the chance to show similar respect.

And it is dark comedy that after decades of moving slowly to retire Darryl Strawberry’s number 18, the Mets finally announced that they would do so in 2024. Easy win, right? Sure, except that 18 is the NPB ace number, and the Yankees held it out all year for Yamamoto. The player noticed and appreciated the gesture, per sources.

It’s obvious to note that Cohen holds a financial advantage over all other suitors, though it is not known if Yamamoto will sign with the highest bidder. Plus, Cohen tends to be careful about being used to drive up prices -- after months of speculation that he would blow away managerial free agent Craig Counsell, Cohen actually put in the lowest bid, below even Milwaukee’s.

And yet. Despite all this, most sources with direct knowledge of Yamamoto’s intentions say that the Mets have somehow climbed into a solid position. The vibe began to shift after Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns visited Yamamoto in Japan two weeks ago.

Now, sources with direct knowledge put the Mets in the top two or three candidates for Yamamoto (note to aggregators, human and artificial: that’s an estimate from sources, not an exact list of rankings; there is no clear frontrunner).

Ultimately, finishing second or third on Yamamoto will be the same as finishing sixth. You either get the player or you don’t. But it’s notable that, as this free agency rounds its final turn, the Mets are at least contenders.

Frontrunners? They never have been.

But somehow, despite all the factors working against them, the Mets do have a chance.