One of the most highly anticipated free agent seasons is upon us, and while the potential bidding war between the Mets and Yankees over Juan Soto figures to be the main event, there are plenty of other reasons for intrigue.
Both local teams came close enough to winning a championship in 2024 for this to be a crucial offseason in regard to taking that final step.
With that in mind, here are my 10 bold predictions for the MLB offseason, centered mostly around our New York teams and stars.
This should be a wonderful time to be a baseball fan in Pittsburgh, with Paul Skenes emerging last season as the most electrifying pitcher to come along since Stephen Strasburg, and teaming with two other dominant young starters -- Jared Jones and Mitch Keller.
Except the Pirates’ payroll for 2025 may be only slightly higher than the AAV of Soto’s new contract. Over the weekend, GM Ben Cherington said plainly that free agency “is just not going to be how we drive winning here.”
As such, the Pirates almost certainly won’t contend for the postseason. Not that Mets or Yankees fans should care. But it’s bad for the sport when a team with exciting young stars can’t (or won’t) spend to put more talent around them.
The bullpen has been a costly problem for the Phillies in recent years, but by October in 2024 they thought they had the answers for the postseason, only to watch the Mets destroy the likes of Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, and newly-acquired Carlos Estevez in the late innings of the NLDS.
So look for the big-spending Phillies to try again, perhaps going after the top reliever on the free agent market, lefty Tanner Scott. And, who knows, maybe Dodgers standout Blake Treinen as well. Scott, who struck out Shohei Ohtani all four times he faced him in their recent postseason matchup, is likely to draw heavy interest as a free agent, perhaps from the Yankees as well.
This is tricky because McNeil still has value, after resurrecting his 2024 season with a strong second half. But he’s overpaid with two years and $31.5 million left on his four-year contract, so the Mets wouldn’t be getting much in return and probably would have to eat significant money in any trade.
Still, after Luisangel Acuna’s impressive late-season stint in Queens, it makes sense to see what he can do as the regular at second base, though such a move would also make it important to re-sign Jose Iglesias as insurance for Acuna and the versatility he offers, especially defensively, as a utility man.
The Orioles' new owner, David Rubenstein, supposedly is going to change the club’s bargain-basement approach to signing players under Peter Angelos, and this will be the first big test. After Baltimore’s disappointing finish in 2024 and some key pitching injuries, it’s imperative the O’s re-sign their ace, Burnes, if they’re serious about trying to win big in 2025.
I wouldn’t bet the ranch on this one, to be clear. After all, Boras is never one to admit a mistake, but certainly you’d have to think he will be motivated to get deals done more quickly than usual after four high-profile clients -- Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman, and Cody Bellinger -- went unsigned last winter until spring training began, and wound up having to settle for short-term contracts rather than the mega-deals they were expecting.
As usual, he has some of the biggest names in this free agent market, including Soto, Pete Alonso, Burnes, Alex Bregman, and Snell again.
In the case of Soto, in particular, the handful of teams expected to make bids of $500 million and up are going to want an answer as quickly as possible as it will have a major impact on what else they do in free agency.
They’d surely do more at the top of the pitching market if they don’t sign Soto, but I also get the sense that David Stearns would prefer to avoid the types of long-term contracts with starting pitchers it will take to sign Burnes.
In this scenario, they could probably bring back Manaea on a three- or four-year deal, and I think that would be worth the gamble because, ahead of his age-33 season, his Chris Sale-like delivery that made him so dominant looks sustainable.
Buehler won’t come cheap after his strong finish in the postseason, but teams will be leery about multi-year offers after he pitched to a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts during his comeback season from his second Tommy John surgery. So maybe he’d sign something like a two-year deal with an opt-out to rebuild his value. The Dodgers may want him back only on their terms, after all of their pitching injuries the last couple of years.
Stearns, who seems to have an eye for finding value in pitching, no doubt would add a couple of more starters on one-year deals (Matthew Boyd, perhaps?), but Kodai Senga, Manaea, Buehler, and David Peterson would be a strong top four.
In a scenario where Soto signs with the Mets (more on that later), the Yankees surely would respond by spending significantly to beef up the offense, which I would predict to mean signing outfielder Anthony Santander and third baseman Alex Bregman.
Throw in the expected development of Jasson Dominguez and, even without Soto, the Yankees could have a deep, potent lineup.
Santander hit 44 home runs for the Orioles last season while Bregman, who on Sunday won his first Gold Glove, would give the Yankees an established run-producing third baseman, presuming that Jazz Chisolm Jr. moves to second to take over for the (again presumed) departed Gleyber Torres.
One problem could be that the Yankees may not want Judge to have to play center field for much longer, and while Dominguez theoretically could take over there, he looked shaky defensively after his call-up in September.
All of which leads to…
Alonso and Christian Walker are power-hitting options who would give the Yankees much-needed offense at the position, but I don’t know that they’d be willing to lock themselves into long-term deals to first basemen in their 30s.
Especially if they’re thinking of eventually moving Aaron Judge to first to lighten his load defensively and help him avoid injury as he gets deeper into his 30s.
With that in mind, I can see where they might try for one season to maximize a platoon of, say, Ben Rice/Oswaldo Cabrera and free agent Carlos Santana. (I saw this mentioned somewhere as a suggestion, and if I could remember where I’d give credit). Santana had a solid season for the Minnesota Twins, but he also turns 39 next year and ideally fits best in a platoon as he mashes lefties (.934 OPS, 12 HRs in 163 plate appearances) and is still very good defensively -- on Sunday he won his first Gold Glove. Rice and Cabrera, meanwhile, hit better against right-handed pitching, with Rice last year showing the potential for big power.
This is based largely on if the Mets get Soto. If they don’t, they’d likely be willing to extend more for Alonso, but even then Stearns probably will have a pretty firm limit as to what he’ll pay.
So I’ll put him with the Giants, who had the second-lowest total of home runs in the majors from the first base position, and have been mostly unsuccessful trying to sign star free agents in recent years. They do have a top first base prospect in Bryce Eldridge, who could be ready in another year, but they could move Alonso to DH at some point, if necessary.
For all the OMG magic that made 2024 such a feel-good season, it’s time for Steve Cohen to flex his financial muscle in a way that could put the Mets over the top, and that means making Soto an offer Hal Steinbrenner won’t match.
What that number is remains to be seen, but Soto will be worth it. He’ll have a transformational impact on the Mets’ offense, as he did with the Yankees, whether Alonso is still there or not. Soto made it clear in the immediate aftermath of the Yankees’ crushing World Series loss that he’s all business as a free agent, with no room for loyalty or discounts. It’s up to Cohen to cash in on that mentality.
