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Mets first baseman Pete Alonso hit 53 homers in 2019 as he shattered the single-season rookie record and led all of the majors. While Alonso is among the favorites to hit the most homers during a shortened 2020 season that could be roughly 82 games, he is not the favorite.
Here are the players with the best odds, per BetMGM:
Joey Gallo: +900
Luis Robert: +900
Pete Alonso: +1000
Mike Trout: +1000
Aaron Judge: +1800
Giancarlo Stanton: +1800
Nolan Arenado: +2200
Ronald Acuna Jr.: +2300
Bryce Harper: +2500
J.D. Martinez: +2500
Eugenio Suarez: +2500
Christian Yelich: +2500
Gleyber Torres: +2800
Alex Bregman: +2800
While every player will be in the same boat when it comes to the length of the season, the uniqueness of the season and the different kind of schedule could help tip things.
Here are three reasons why Alonso could be set up well to lead the league in homers in 2020...
The Weather
Alonso hit nine homers in April of 2019 and 10 homers in May, meaning the often unkind way the ball carries in those months in cold-weather cities didn't hurt him that much.
However, in nine early-season games in Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia, Alonso hit zero homers. It should be noted that he had no problem smacking the ball out of Citi Field early on, including four in a three-game series against the Nats from April 6-9. Still, Alonso not having to deal with any true "cold weather" games during the regular season should only help.
With Joey Gallo (Texas Rangers) and Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels) among the other players with the best odds to hit the most homers in 2020, Alonso could now be on a more level playing field with them.
The East Coast-Centric Schedule
There were two National League ballparks where Alonso failed to homer last season: Chase Field in Arizona and PNC Park in Pittsburgh -- spacious parks where Alonso played six total games.
With the schedule in 2020 expected to keep teams centralized, the Mets will likely only be facing teams in the NL East and AL East.
The above means a significant amount of the road schedule will be at Marlins Park and Sun Trust Park (two of three road ballparks where Alonso crushed three homers in 2019), Nationals Park (where he hit two homers in 2019), and Citizens Bank Park (where he somehow only hit one homer in 10 games last season, but should be able to feast).
Depending on how the home/road schedule against the AL East shakes out, Alonso could also be getting more games in the band box that is Yankee Stadium and a chance to take aim at the Green Monster at Fenway Park.
When it comes to home cooking, Alonso was very comfortable hitting at Citi Field last season, smacking 27 homers.
Fresher Alonso = No huge slump?
In what was his first season in the bigs, the only month where Alonso struggled was July, when he hit only six homers. From July 21 to August 5, Alonso hit just one homer.
Whether the above was caused by fatigue after All-Star weekend and winning the Home Run Derby, Alonso being worn out during his first big league grind, or something else, the shortened season in 2020 means the regular season will almost certainly be over before Alonso plays as many games this year as he did last April through June (85).
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