What to expect from Mets prospect Matt Allan in 2023

Going back to the 2019 MLB Draft, Matt Allan was widely considered to be a lock first round pick and one of the top high school pitching prospects in the draft class.

However, there was also a belief that under the advisement of Scott Boras, Allan was intending to fulfill his commitment to the University of Florida. He was said to be asking for a well above slot signing bonus, which I heard was in the $4 million range.

The Mets, specifically area scout Jon Updike, had built a relationship with Allan and his family throughout his high school career. The organization had belief that despite his draft day fall, he was indeed willing to sign and was interested in turning pro.

That relationship and feel proved to be correct as the Mets and Allan agreed to a $2.5 million signing bonus after he was selected in the third round with the 89^th overall selection.

He was immediately considered among the very best prospects in the Mets’ system. I personally had him ranked ahead of their first-round pick, Brett Baty, on my big board.

Allan was considered much more advanced than your typical high school arm, where they are often largely projectable based on their build and/or repertoire.

Allan, of course, still needed to develop his secondary pitches. However, he did already have a big-league starter’s build at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, and he had a solid three-pitch mix.

He made his presence felt right away, as at just 18-years-old he played a role in the Brooklyn Cyclones championship run in the last year of the New York Penn League. At that time, Brooklyn was more or less reserved for college junior & senior aged prospects.

Now this is when things began to get crazy.

We all know the impact COVID-19 had on the world and the game of baseball. In 2020, the entire minor league season ended up being canceled. The Mets, much like other teams, had some of their key prospects work out at the alternate site which was in Brooklyn and Allan was amongst them.

While there, he was able to learn from major league caliber pitchers that were on reserve should a need arise with the big-league club. But, that simply wasn’t real, live baseball action and it didn’t have the travel schedule that goes with being a professional baseball player.

Heading into spring training 2021, Allan received an invite to big league camp. Although, he was hardly able to see any game action at the time. As it turns out, the youngster had suffered a torn UCL and required Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in May, effectively wiping out his whole season.

The thought was that 2022 would end up being Allan’s first full minor league season. However, that ended up not being the case as shortly after he reported to spring training it was announced he needed to undergo ulnar nerve transposition surgery.

This procedure is sometimes seen as a follow-up to Tommy John. Both Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz underwent the same surgery during their time with the Mets. This, of course, wiped out Allan’s 2022 campaign.

The question is what should Mets fans expect from Allan in 2023 after three full years of not pitching in a competitive minor league setting?

From talking to people with the Mets, the expectation is that Allan will be healthy for spring training for the first time since 2020, but they will be cautious with him. The goal for 2023 should be to just get Allan on a routine and to keep him healthy and help him make it through a minor league season, presumably on a pretty strict innings limit.

Allan is the ultimate wild card in this Mets system. He has as much upside as anyone outside of top prospect Francisco Álvarez, albeit with a floor of us wondering what could have been if not for his injuries.

When Allan was healthy, he had an above-average fastball that would sit around 93-95 mph, while touching 97. His curveball was his best secondary pitch, which he located well and frequently used to get swings-and-misses. Prior to his injuries he was working extremely hard on his change-up.

Despite all of the injuries, Allan will play the 2023 season as a 22-year-old. I would guess he’ll begin the year in Low-A St. Lucie with hopes of finishing the year with High-A Brooklyn. He has gone from being a potential advanced high school arm to being on a similar trajectory to a college senior.

Allan might be the prospect I am most interested in following this season in a system that doesn’t have a ton of high-end pitching prospects. The Mets could really use a healthy and strong year from him.