Pros and Cons: Should Mets sign Walker Buehler?

One of the things at the top of the list for the Mets this offseason will be rebuilding a rotation that could be losing three core members from the 2024 group.

They've extended one-year, qualifying offers to free agents Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana is also a free agent.

Manaea will almost certainly reject the QO and hit the free agent market.

Regarding Severino, the possibility exists that he could accept the QO, which would bring him back to the Mets for 2025.

As things currently stand, the Mets' rotation ahead of 2025 consists of Kodai Senga (who should be healthy after a 2024 that was lost to multiple injuries) and David Peterson, with depth options that include Paul Blackburn (assuming he's offered arbitration), Jose Butto, and Tylor Megill.

There are a handful of ace-level starting pitchers on the free agent market -- Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell.

Also available is 23-year-old Japanese ace Roki Sasaki, whose age and years of service in Japan will limit him to a minor league deal, with interested teams able to only offer their international bonus pool money to him. Pretty much every team will be after him.

Then there's the trade market, with White Sox ace Garrett Crochet at the top of it.

But there's also a way for the Mets to seriously improve their rotation without signing one of the biggest names or swinging a trade for someone like Crochet.

They did that last offseason, when they signed Severino and Manaea.

The Mets correctly identified that Severino was likely to bounce back after a lost 2023 with the Yankees, and their belief in that paid off.

As far as Manaea, the Mets took a chance on him and then watched him pitch like an ace down the stretch in 2024 after he dropped his arm angle.

Now, the 2025 version of Severino and Manaea could be staring them in the face.

Enter Walker Buehler?

PROS

Buehler is the only pitcher available this offseason via free agency who has legitimate ace potential, but who almost certainly won't require a long-term deal.

The guess here is that Burnes will get around seven years, Fried six years, and Snell three or four. All three of those pitchers could get average annual values that exceed $30 million.

As far as Buehler, it seems likely that he'll ink a one- or two-year deal (potentially with the second year being a player option) in order to build his value back up following Tommy John surgery and a difficult regular season in 2024.

Another plus regarding Buehler is that the Dodgers did not extend a qualifying offer to him, which means any team that signs him will not lose a draft pick for doing so.

When Buehler is right, he is a No. 1 starter. From 2018 to 2021 he had a 2.82 ERA (3.16 FIP) and 0.98 WHIP while striking out 620 batters in 564.0 innings -- a strikeout rate a tick under 10.0 per nine.

And while Buehler struggled this past season during what was his first year back after having Tommy John surgery in August of 2022 (his second TJS, after also having the procedure in 2015), there are reasons to believe he'll be able to return to form in 2025 as he enters his age-30 season.

CONS

Buehler's struggles during the 2024 regular season were deep, as he posted a 5.38 ERA (5.54 FIP) and 1.55 WHIP in 16 starts over 75.1 innings while striking out 64 -- a career-low 7.6 per nine.

A closer look shows that Buehler's stuff graded out near the bottom of the league. Meanwhile, many of his advanced stats (including xERA, xBA, chase rate, and whiff rate) were among the worst in baseball.

Buehler's four-seam fastball and sinker also saw modest velocity dips between his last fully healthy season (2021) and 2024, but those drops weren't alarming. His average four-seam velocity in 2021 was 95.3 mph, while it was 95.0 mph in 2024.

Also of note is that Buehler relied a lot less on his four-seamer in 2024 than he did earlier in his career. And hitters tagged it this past season, batting .342 with a .696 slugging percentage against the offering.

It's common for pitchers in their first year back from Tommy John surgery to struggle, so it should not be surprising that Buehler's regular season in 2024 was a slog. But it was alarmingly bad at times.

Another thing to consider is how many innings Buehler might be limited to in 2025. He pitched just 90.1 innings in 2024 between the regular season and postseason, meaning it's unreasonable to believe he'll have a regular workload this coming season.

VERDICT

As the Dodgers' playoff run went on, Buehler started to resemble the best version of himself, culminating with 4.0 shutout innings against the Mets in the NLCS and 6.0 scoreless innings against the Yankees in the World Series. In those two series, he allowed just five hits, walked four, and struck out 13.

If Buehler finds his form, he could be the steal of the offseason. And if he doesn't, the commitment will likely be so short that it wouldn't matter much.

He should be near the top of the Mets' offseason wish list.