5 X-factors that could help determine Mets' Wild Card fate

After an offseason where many people ran around like chickens with their heads cut off bellowing that the Mets were "punting" the 2024 season, and after an early-season swoon that led nearly everyone to predict the Mets would be sellers at the deadline, New York enters the final stretch of the season in playoff position.

That the Mets are here is a testament to Steve Cohen's ownership, David Stearns' vision and measured aggression, Carlos Mendoza's leadership, and the character being displayed daily by the players on a roster that has been defined by resiliency and determination.

With a few weeks to go in the regular season and the Mets battling the Braves, Diamondbacks, and Padres for one of the three Wild Card spots in the National League, here are five X-factors that could help determine things...

The Brewers' record on Sept. 27

Much has been made of the Mets' difficult remaining schedule. And it certainly is difficult, with seven games left against the Phillies, a potentially season-defining three-game series with the Braves in Atlanta during the last week, and three games against the Brewers in Milwaukee to close it out.

However, there's a chance the Brewers are playing for literally nothing by the time the Mets arrive in town.

Barring an epic collapse by Milwaukee, the race for the NL Central is over. The Brewers will be division champs.

That means the only thing the Brewers are playing for right now is one of the two all-important byes in the NL -- which go to the two division winners with the best record, allowing those teams to skip the Wild Card series and go straight to the NLDS.

The problem for the Brewers is that they're 3.5 games back of both the Phillies and Dodgers for one of those byes.

If Milwaukee enters the final weekend with a chance to nab a bye, they'll have a lot to play for. If not, it's very hard to envision them pushing their starting pitchers very long, relying too heavily on any of their key relievers, or resisting the urge to rest some key position players.

But there's a long way to go before the Mets get there...

The schedules of the other contenders (duh)

As is noted above, the Mets' schedule is hard. But they've risen to the challenge against tough competition all season, including a second half that has seen them split four games with the Braves, take series from the Twins, Orioles, and D-backs, and split a four-game set with the Padres. They also swept three games from a Red Sox team that was fighting for its playoff life.

So there should be hope that the Mets will continue to excel against other good teams.

As far as their competition?

Atlanta's road is the easiest, but it includes a four-game series against the Dodgers this weekend, three games in Cincinnati in the Reds' band box, and a season-closing series against a tough Royals team that could be fighting for a playoff spot or better seeding.

Arizona's schedule is relatively difficult, including seven games against a Brewers team that will come with Milwaukee still playing for a bye. They close the season with a six-game homestand against a Giants club that will certainly want to ruin the D-backs' season and against the Padres.

San Diego's schedule is challenging, with the team embarking on a five-game road trip to Seattle (still battling for a playoff spot) and San Francisco before returning home to face the Astros. They then have three games against the hapless White Sox before a season-ending six-game road trip where they'll face the Dodgers and D-backs.

Kodai Senga and Christian Scott

The Mets' rotation has been doing a terrific job without its ace and without a rookie who showed serious flashes in limited chances.

But both Scott and Senga are attempting to make it back before the end of the regular season.

Senga is on the 60-day IL while recovering from his calf strain and can't be activated until Sept. 25. But that would be in time for the second game of the Mets' series against the Braves in Atlanta.

It's possible Senga returns as a starting rotation option, though he could be limited to more of an opener type of role initially since he won't be fully stretched out.

As far as Scott, he is making serious strides as he works his way back from a sprained UCL.

If Senga and/or Scott can return before the regular season ends -- in whatever capacity -- it could add a jolt to the Mets' playoff chances.

The tiebreakers

When the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 2022, tiebreaker games to determine teams' playoff fate went the way of the dodo bird.

Instead of one-game play-ins, ties are now broken by ... tiebreakers.

The Mets won the season series against the D-backs (four games to three) and Padres (five games to two). That means that if New York finishes in a tie with either Arizona or San Diego, they will win the tiebreaker.

If the Mets, D-backs, and Padres finish in a three-way tie, the Mets will win that one by virtue of having the tiebreaker over both Arizona and San Diego.

The tiebreaker with the Braves hasn't yet been determined, with New York and Atlanta's season series tied, 5-5.

That means that -- shocker -- whoever wins the three-game series in Atlanta in the final week of the season will also hold the tiebreaker.

Francisco Alvarez

Alvarez, who has provided enormous value to the Mets this season by managing the pitching staff before games, being in charge of it during games, and being elite when it comes to framing, has had a very disappointing year offensively.

Stearns was recently asked if there was a temptation to take some of the responsibilities off of Alvarez's plate in order to perhaps help him focus more on his offense, but Stearns' answer was that this is just how Alvarez is wired.

He wants to be in charge of all of this stuff, and he will not be giving any of it up. That's a good thing.

Alvarez has shown that he has light-tower power and that he craves game-changing moments. This is someone who hit 25 homers in just 123 games as a 21-year-old rookie. But Alvarez has only six homers in 84 games this season -- including just one since July 26, and an OPS around .660.

If he finds his power stroke over the last few weeks, it could be a game-changer.