Mets' rotation in precarious spot after Frankie Montas' injury

The first major challenge the Mets will have to overcome in 2025 came to light on Monday morning, when it was revealed that starting pitcher Frankie Montas has a serious lat injury that will result in him being shut down from throwing for six-to-eight weeks.

Once Montas is cleared to throw, he'll need his own full spring training of sorts to get ready before making his season debut.

Doing the math, that means the best-case scenario is Montas being a rotation option around the end of May. But the likeliest scenario could see him returning at some point in June.

The Mets' rotation before Montas went down had high upside, but was probably the biggest question mark surrounding the team. With Montas now out, the question mark regarding the starting staff gets bigger.

If you want to look at the Mets' rotation situation in a glass-half-full scenario, you get this:

• Kodai Senga, who recently said he has no concerns following a year mostly lost due to injury, has ace potential -- as he showed in 2023
• Sean Manaea pitched like an ace for the last few months of 2024, and is back to help anchor the staff
• Clay Holmes' nasty stuff could make him an imposing presence in the middle of the rotation
• David Peterson seemed to start to finally put it all together last year
• The Mets, even while planning to utilize a six-man rotation, should have enough depth to withstand the loss of Montas. That depth includes Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill, and Paul Blackburn
• Top prospect Brandon Sproat could be a big league option sooner rather than later if he masters Triple-A

If you want to look at the Mets' rotation situation in a glass-half-empty scenario, you get this:

• Senga's 2024 was derailed by multiple injuries, which limited him to one regular season start. He didn't begin to feel normal health-wise until the beginning of January, and it's fair to wonder how many innings he'll be able to throw this season
• Manaea's results over the final few months of last season were real, but can he keep pitching at that level now that the league has a book on the new version of him?
• Holmes is transitioning from a relief role to starting. How will he handle the workload, and how will the stuff translate?
• Peterson has yet to put together back-to-back strong campaigns
• Canning (4.78 career ERA), Megill ( 4.56 career ERA), and Blackburn (4.85 career ERA) are fine as depth options, but counting on two out of three of them in a six-man rotation could be asking a lot
• Sproat struggled with the transition to Triple-A late last season, and could take longer than expected to be a big league option

The reality is that the outcome for the rotation will likely fall somewhere between one of the above scenarios.

Meanwhile, owner Steve Cohen said on Tuesday morning that he expects the pitching will "surprise" people.

Cohen also said that the Mets would continue to be flexible when it comes to additions to the big league roster, explaining that they have some budget in reserve for the trade deadline.

As far as how the Montas injury might change things in the immediate, SNY MLB Insider Andy Martino reported on Monday that "the initial read" was that the Mets were not likely to fill their rotation need externally.

I was of the opinion even before Montas' injury that the Mets needed a finishing piece of sorts for the rotation given all the uncertainty.

So while it's understandable that they would initially approach this situation with the idea of going internal, one would have to imagine they'll be quick to more seriously explore external options if things aren't working out.

That doesn't mean they should trade Sproat and Jett Williams for Dylan Cease. Sproat and Williams should be off-limits in any talks for a rental.

And it doesn't mean that they should call the Diamondbacks and swing an immediate trade for bounce back candidate Jordan Montgomery.

But it does mean that the Mets should be even more fervent when it comes to possibly getting the Padres to agree to a package for Cease that is more reasonable -- if San Diego is even willing to have that conversation right now.

And it means they should be monitoring how Montgomery looks in spring training, and be open to a situation where Arizona eats a substantial portion of his salary in order to help facilitate a trade.

The Mets should also have an eye on the free agent starting pitchers who are still out there, and who would all likely come relatively cheaply on a one-year deal. That group includes Andrew Heaney and Lance Lynn.

New York's goal is sustainable success, so doing something rash is not in their DNA. But they have to be ready to strike if the rotation doesn't come together as they're hoping it will.