Mets Playoff Roster Projection 2.0: Locks, position battles, and the big decisions coming

The Mets' ticket to the 2022 MLB playoffs is punched, and it is not yet known whether they'll be entering as the National League East champs or the top Wild Card.

But with just six games left in the regular season, the Mets are going to soon have to start making decisions when it comes to which players will be on their 26-man playoff roster.

Some important nuggets as it pertains to playoff roster rules...

- Any player who was on the Mets' 40-man roster or 60-day IL as of 11:59 p.m. on Aug. 31 is eligible

- Teams are permitted to submit a new 26-man roster before each postseason series

- Teams are allowed to replace an injured player during a series, but if a player is replaced, he is ineligible for the remainder of that series and the entirety of the next one (should his team advance). Additionally, injured pitchers must be replaced by another pitcher, and injured position players must be replaced by another position player

When it comes to how the Mets might shape their postseason roster, let's first start by listing the expected locks (health dependent, of course), with the position players first and then the pitchers:

POSITION PLAYER LOCKS (12)

Pete Alonso, 1B
Jeff McNeil, INF/OF
Francisco Lindor, SS
Eduardo Escobar, INF
Luis Guillorme, INF
Brandon Nimmo, OF
Starling Marte, OF
Mark Canha, OF
Tyler Naquin, OF
Daniel Vogelbach, DH
Tomas Nido, C
James McCann, C

The above list is pretty self-explanatory, and nothing has changed here from our first projection. The Mets have four infielders capable of playing multiple infield spots, plus Alonso at first base.

They have four guys capable of playing the outfield, and two catchers.

Vogelbach is basically a DH only.

One very important thing to note here, though, is the health of Marte.

Marte's initial hope was to return from his broken finger for the Braves series in Atlanta, but it doesn't seem like that will happen. And it's unclear whether he'll be back at any point during the Mets' final regular season series against the Nationals.

Marte recently received a shot in his broken finger, and needs to be able to again grip a bat and ball in order to return. It's fair to believe that will happen in time for the playoffs, if not sooner, but there's at least some question at this point. 

PITCHER LOCKS (9)

Jacob deGrom, RHP
Max Scherzer, RHP
Chris Bassitt, RHP
Edwin Diaz, RHP
Seth Lugo, RHP
Adam Ottavino, RHP
Trevor May, RHP
Mychal Givens, RHP
Drew Smith, RHP

Some people still have Smith on the bubble, but I don't see it. He was one of the Mets' best relievers the first half of the season, has plus stuff, and the chance to be one of their reliable arms in the late innings come playoff time. To me, he's a clear lock. That's a change from our projection 1.0, which came out before Smith returned from the IL.

As far as the starters go, if the Mets win the NL East, they will almost certainly need a No. 4 starter in that series (if they don't sweep), because of there being just one scheduled day off.

Either way (whether they're in the Wild Card Series first or NLDS first), I would expect the Mets to carry four traditional starting pitchers -- with one of them perhaps in the bullpen.

I listed 21 expected locks above, which means the Mets would have five more spots on the playoff roster and a pool of about a dozen players to choose from.

That brings us to our first potential roster battle...

WHO IS THE NO. 4 STARTER?

The logical options to be the No. 4 starter are Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker.

After pitching very well for most of the second half, Carrasco has faltered in a big way lately, lasting just 4.0 innings and 3.0 innings in his last two starts, including a dud against the Miami Marlins on Sept. 27.

Walker has bent but not broken lately. However, he's been more impressive than Carrasco and fanned eight batters in five innings in his start against the Marlins on Sept. 28.

Beyond the overall numbers for Walker and Carrasco are the strikeout numbers, and simply the amount of times they miss bats. Carrasco is ordinarily better at that, and his stuff has played up better than Walker's, but what we've seen from Carrasco lately has been alarming.

A big concern with Walker would be how quickly he sometimes loses it in games, whether it's seemingly letting a bad situation get the best of him or running out of gas in the middle innings. But in the postseason, when the bullpen is at the ready and on high alert every game, the Mets could conceivably use Walker with a safety net behind him.

Taking the above into account, and given Carrasco's recent struggles, I'm going to flip the No. 4 projection from Carrasco to Walker. And if Walker is in the rotation, Carrasco could possibly get consideration as someone who can work out of the bullpen.

WHO IS THE LEFTY IN THE BULLPEN?

Having a lefty isn't an absolute need, especially if you have guys who can cross over (like Lugo). But it would be very surprising if the Mets didn't carry at least one lefty and perhaps two.

Joely Rodriguez has had an up-and-down season, and someone (ahem, me) said recently that it's hard to envision him on the playoff roster. But Rodriguez has been terrific lately, tossing five perfect innings over three recent appearances while striking out nine before a hiccup in a blowout loss to the A's in Oakland. So as of now, you have to figure he's on the roster.

If the Mets carry a second lefty, it will likely be David Peterson, since the rehabbing Joey Lucchesi has not yet returned.

WHO ROUNDS OUT THE REST OF BULLPEN?

With the nine pitcher locks listed above, plus Walker and Rodriguez, the Mets are up to 11 pitchers on the roster in this projection. For reference, the 2015 Mets carried 11 pitchers and 14 position players on their NLDS roster.

With an extra postseason roster spot in 2022, figure the Mets will go with either 11 pitchers and 15 position players, or 12 pitchers and 14 position players.

As far as the other (non-lefty) arms in the bullpen, there's Tylor Megill, who has spun three consecutive scoreless outings as he gets acclimated to a relief role, and who could be both a late-inning weapon and piggyback option with one of the starting pitchers.

So let's add Megill to the roster, bringing the total number of pitchers to 12. That would mean Trevor Williams -- who has excelled as a reliever this season -- unfortunately getting squeezed out. Carrasco would be left out as well. 

WHO IS THE RIGHTY DH AND PINCH-HITTER?

With 12 pitchers and 12 position players now on the projected roster, that means the Mets have two slots left for two more position players.

The first time we projected the roster, it was almost certainly going to be Darin Ruf or Mark Vientos as the short end of the DH platoon and pinch-hitting option.

But Ruf has continued to struggle -- to the point where Vientos recently supplanted him in the pecking order before Ruf was placed on the IL on Friday due to a neck injury. 

And with the Mets calling up Francisco Alvarez ahead of Friday's series-opener against the Braves, he is now under consideration for a playoff role.

If Alvarez performs well over the last six games of the season and doesn't look overmatched, it's fair to believe the Mets might just have him on the playoff roster.

THE NEED FOR SPEED?

Terrance Gore is basically a pinch-running specialist, but he's an incredibly valuable one who has already wreaked havoc on the bases in his brief time with the Mets.

Gore rarely gets an at-bat or plays the field, but that didn't prevent him from being on the Los Angeles Dodgers' playoff roster in 2020 and the Braves' playoff roster in 2021.

So expect him to crack the Mets' playoff roster, and potentially help them steal a game or two.

WAITING IN THE WINGS

In the event the Mets need an injury replacement or someone isn't performing to expectations, players they could possibly turn to include Brett Baty (who is getting closer to a return from a thumb injury), Michael Perez, and Dominic Smith.

Smith is among the players currently with the Mets in New York on the taxi squad.