What will break it?
It was surprising to see Carter being so ineffective in 2022, especially as Hall had so much success in the same offense. Carter was one of the league leaders in broken tackle rate as a rookie but his numbers for forced missed tackles and yards after contact dropped off dramatically in 2022 so he needs to find a way to break out of that slump.
Injures have been one of the things that has slowed him down. Despite only missing one game, Carter was dealing with a high ankle strain down the stretch, having also been troubled by an ankle issue at the end of his rookie year. He needs to prove he can be durable if he wants his workload to increase.
Another factor was his apparent frustration with the offensive system and his lack of touches. Now that Nathaniel Hackett has taken over from Mike LaFleur as offensive coordinator, Carter will hope to get a clean slate but must show more patience if he has to wait for opportunities.
One of the things Carter needed to improve in 2022 was his pass protection. However, he arguably regressed in that area. If he can’t prove himself to be a reliable pass protector, especially now that Rodgers is the player he’ll be tasked with protecting, then that will be another thing that keeps him off the field. Hopefully Rodgers’ experience will benefit Carter here because he’ll set the protection correctly and anticipate pressure better than Zach Wilson did last year.
What will make it?
Carter has talent, so if he can be healthy to start the year, he could produce well in an offense against which defenses will no longer be able to stack the box. If Hall is slow to hit full speed, then Carter will need to make the most of any playing time he gets in order to show that he can complement a healthy Hall rather than just being his backup.
Indications are that Rodgers has been impressed with Carter as he’s been getting plenty of work during the offseason with Hall still rehabbing his surgically repaired knee. If he can continue to earn Rodgers’ trust, that will go a long way towards ensuring he gets plenty of opportunities once the season gets underway.
When he did get touches last year, Carter had some good games with 100 yards from scrimmage on 17 touches against the Ravens, 74 on 15 touches against Denver and 86 on 13 touches against Buffalo. He’ll hope to have more games like this in 2023.