Knicks Mailbag: Starting five prediction and odds Julius Randle is traded

@unresuse: Predicting the Knicks starting 5 as of right now. Grimes or Evan the starter?

A few things come to mind here. When the Knicks signed Jalen Brunson, some in the organization were concerned with the defensive pairing of Brunson and Evan Fournier in the backcourt. 

I don’t know if this was an opinion shared by the majority of decision-makers, but it was prevalent. One scenario discussed internally around that time was starting Quentin Grimes at shooting guard and bringing Fournier off the bench. Another scenario discussed internally involved moving RJ Barrett to shooting guard and Cam Reddish to small forward. If I had to guess, the Knicks discussed several other scenarios at the time and in the 10-plus weeks since the signing.

Based on that knowledge, and the idea that Fournier was included in several packages discussed by the Knicks and Utah Jazz in Donovan Mitchell trade talks, I’d assume that Grimes starts and Fournier comes off the bench.

The other four spots are easier to guess at this point: Brunson, Barrett, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson.

But, as @unresuse notes, this prediction is based on the roster as it is right now. If the roster remains the same, my best guess is that Grimes will start at shooting guard.

The idea that the Knicks need to trade Fournier doesn’t add up for me. Fournier set the franchise record for three pointers made last season. I would assume he met or exceeded the Knicks’ expectations when the club signed him to a four-year $73 million deal in the summer of 2021.

So I don’t know why New York would be in a rush to trade him. The Knicks need more shooting. Trading Fournier would give them less shooting, depending on which players they receive in the trade, of course.

The signing of Svi Mykhailiuk adds shooting to the roster. (Mykhailiuk’s deal is for the minimum and guaranteed for $50,000; it becomes fully guaranteed in early January, sources confirmed, as first reported by The Athletic).

But New York could still use more shooting on the roster. That’s why trading Fournier just to trade him doesn’t make a ton of sense, in my opinion.

QUICK HITTERS:

We’ll go rapid fire on a few other questions/topics:

@ImmanuelJewkley: Hey Ian. Big fan, what are the odds that the Knicks trade forward Julius Randle before the start of the year?

Thanks, much appreciated. I’m not a big odds guy but I’d say 40 percent.

@AwareOfBreath: Why hasn’t Randle been traded to the Lakers yet for Russell Westbrook for cap space room and giving Obi space to play?

Not sure why it hasn’t happened. I’d only be guessing if I provided a reason.

@J_ac0_b: Has there been any word on the size of Julius’ role going into this season?

Not that I’ve heard. But I’ve heard that members of the coaching staff think Obi Toppin’s role could increase. That’s a natural progression after Toppin’s play at the end of last season. But I didn’t get the sense that what I mentioned above on Toppin meant that he will certainly get a significant minutes increase this season.

@Dsilver56: Who do you think will surprise us on the Knicks this season? Positively or negatively?

Since it’s so early in the year, I’ll stick with the positive for now. I think Brunson’s impact on the young Knicks – and all of his teammates – will surprise Knicks fans.

@AQuincyJones: Wassup, do we think Evan Fournier is comfortable coming off the bench?

I would assume so. But I don’t have any reporting on that topic.

@KNYT_Hoops: Is there any other trade potentially incoming with the Knicks? Fournier or Randle?

If you asked me this last week, I’d say that I didn’t think the Knicks are fully closed off on potential deals. Has that changed in the past few days? I don’t think so. I believe New York will remain open to potential deals during training camp and the preseason.

@NewYorkForeverM: Do you think Jalen Brunson will have the highest usage rate on the Knicks this season? And do you think Julius Randle will have a reduced role this season?

Either Brunson or Barrett will have the highest usage rate, I’d guess. I’m not sure about Randle.

@NeverEnough32: What are your win/loss expectations for both franchises this season?

Knicks: 39; Nets: 49

@Leonrose_fan: Have the Knicks/Suns (had) any convos on a Julius Randle/Jae Crowder framework?

I haven’t heard. But that doesn’t mean the conversations haven’t happened.