Astros right-hander Justin Verlander, whom the Mets traded to Houston during last season's deadline, will not reach the 140 regular season innings needed to trigger his vesting option for 2025 -- a development that will take the Mets off the hook for the $17.5 million they would've owed him next season.
Verlander has been on the IL since the middle of June due to a neck issue, in what is his second stint on the IL this season.
He opened the year on the IL due to a shoulder issue, and did not make his regular season debut until April 19.
Verlander recently faced hitters for the first time since suffering his injury. And while his return could come in the near future, there will not be enough games left in the season for him to come anywhere close to 140 innings.
With the Astros having 54 games left in the regular season and the earliest Verlander could return being the next time through the rotation (which would mean foregoing a rehab assignment), the most starts he could possibly have left this season is nine.
Verlander has thrown 57 innings over 10 starts this season -- averaging a bit under 6.0 innings per start.
To pitch at least 83 more innings in order to reach the 140 mark (with at most nine starts left for him), Verlander would have to average 9.1 innings per start. That would mean pitching into extra innings each time out. Translation: It's not happening.
When the Mets traded Verlander, they agreed to pay $25 million of his 2024 salary and to pay half of his $35 million salary in 2025, which would've only been required if the option vested.
The reason the Mets ate so much money in the trade that sent Verlander to Houston was because they wanted to maximize their prospect return. And they were able to achieve that goal, receiving Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford.